2016-06-09-世界卫生组织-Final_Report_on_Assessment_of_Effects_of_Climate_Factors_on_Diarrheal_Diseases_at_National_and_Sub-national_Levels_in_Nepal_92页_9mb

Summary: Effects of Climate Factors on Diarrheal Diseases in Nepal

The study assesses the impact of climate factors (temperature, rainfall, etc.) on diarrheal diseases in Nepal, focusing on children under five years. Data from 1971–2014 for climate and 2002–2014 for diarrheal incidence show a general warming trend, especially in mountain regions, and declining precipitation in most physiographic zones except High Himalayas. These trends are significant given Nepal’s high climate vulnerability.

Diarrheal disease incidence increased over the study period, with higher rates in mountain eco-belts. Statistical modeling indicates a strong link between temperature rises and diarrheal cases, with varying regional impacts—e.g., 4.39% increase per °C rise nationwide. Rainfall had a smaller but region-specific effect, though insignificant in Terai. Seasonal effects show higher incidence in summer and lower in spring, possibly due to temperature. Population growth and long-term trends also contributed to increases.

Despite rising water and sanitation coverage (86% and 90.6% respectively by 2015), diarrheal cases rose. This reflects inadequate WASH infrastructure, poor hygiene, and climate-related water contamination (especially post-rain). The disconnect between coverage increases and reduced disease burden points to broader challenges in implementation and behavior change.

Key findings include:

• Climate change significantly increased diarrheal cases, with stronger effects in mountain regions.
• WASH infrastructure improvements did not fully reduce cases, indicating gaps in water quality, sanitation behavior, and contamination risks.
• Regional variations in climate and disease incidence highlight socio-economic and geographic inequalities.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Climate change exacerbates diarrheal diseases in Nepal, particularly in mountainous areas. Recommendations include:

• Strengthening climate-resilient WASH infrastructure and hygiene promotion.
• Designing health programs with climate change adaptation in mind.
• Integrating climate factors into national health policies and surveillance for better evidence-based planning.