2026年全球ETF展望报告_从工具载体到市场支柱_52页_2mb

2026 Global ETF Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2026 Global ETF Outlook highlights the evolving role of ETFs from a simple investment wrapper to a fundamental component of modern portfolio construction and market structure. The report outlines the major trends and challenges shaping the ETF industry, emphasizing the increasing complexity and strategic importance of ETFs across global markets.

Key Trends and Predictions

1. Global ETF Growth and Innovation

• The global ETF market reached US$19.85 trillion in 2025, a US$4.9 trillion increase from the end of 2024.
• Record inflows of US$2.4 trillion in 2025, up 26% from the previous year.
• 48% of the change in global AUM came from net new money.
• 2,795 new ETFs were listed globally in 2025, an increase of 997 from 2024.
• Active ETFs gained significant traction, with inflows rising 70% to US$638 billion, and active fixed income ETFs seeing a 46% surge to US$459 billion.
• US actively managed ETF inflows reached US$515 billion, surpassing total passive ETF inflows from 2023 (US$464 billion).

2. Regional Megatrends

North America

• ETFs are evolving into the backbone of modern investing, driven by liquidity, cost efficiency, and accessibility.
• Active ETFs are becoming a major growth engine, with 84% of new launches being active in 2025.
• 351 exchanges are gaining traction, allowing investors to contribute assets to ETFs without capital gains recognition.
• ETF share classes are emerging as a new channel for growth, though adoption remains a work in progress.
• Digital distribution is accelerating, particularly for younger, digitally native investors.

Europe

• ETFs are maturing and becoming more widely adopted, with active ETFs now accounting for 36% of new fund launches in 2025.
• Active ETF inflows reached US$38 billion in 2025, representing 10% of all flows.
• Retail adoption is increasing, with 32.8 million investors in Europe in 2025, a 69% increase from 2022.
• Regulatory support is growing, with the EU working on an updated retail investment framework (RIS) to enhance investor protection and participation.
• Defined-maturity and short duration bond ETFs are in demand due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Asia Pacific (APAC)

• APAC ETF AUM surpassed US$2 trillion in 2025, with net inflows of US$300 billion.
• Active ETFs are gaining popularity, with global managers entering markets like Australia and Taiwan.
• Retail participation is a key driver, especially in Japan, where NISA policies and tax exemptions are encouraging investment in ETFs.
• Commodity and real estate ETFs saw net inflows, showing a demand for diversification and inflation-resilient assets.

Strategic Imperatives

• Managing complexity is critical as ETFs expand into more sophisticated strategies.
• Scaling active ETFs requires addressing capacity constraints, liquidity challenges, and distribution economics.
• Infrastructure and distribution channels are becoming more important, especially with the rise of ETF share classes and 351 exchanges.
• Investor education is essential for the adoption of complex strategies like structured products, leveraged ETFs, and pre-IPO exposure.

Key Challenges

• Regulatory uncertainty around 351 exchanges and tokenization remains a hurdle.
• Cost management is crucial, as active ETFs often have higher expense ratios (up to 70 basis points) compared to passive ETFs.
• Transition from mutual funds to ETFs is challenging due to differing revenue models and operational complexities.

Conclusion

ETFs are no longer just a tool for passive investing but are becoming a backbone of the investment ecosystem, offering diverse strategies, liquidity, and transparency. The 2026 outlook emphasizes the need for strategic innovation, regulatory clarity, and investor education to sustain and accelerate this growth. As the industry moves forward, the focus will be on scaling active strategies, enhancing distribution channels, and adapting to evolving market demands.