2016年-查塔姆研究所_Realizing_TTIPs_Strategic_Potential_22页_584kb

Summary of Realizing TTIP's Strategic Potential

Core Content

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a comprehensive trade agreement currently under negotiation between the United States and the European Union. It is described as a bold and strategic initiative, aiming to liberalize trade across a wide range of policy areas and influence global trade rules. However, it also carries significant risks due to the complexity of negotiations, divergent interests between the EU and the US, and growing trade scepticism on both sides.

Main Views and Key Information

• Strategic Potential: TTIP is seen as a way for the EU and US to reassert their leadership in shaping international trade rules, particularly in areas like consumer protection, pharmaceutical standards, and environmental regulations. This leadership can have a magnetic effect on other countries, encouraging them to adopt similar rules to gain access to the transatlantic market.

• Economic Impact: TTIP could generate substantial economic benefits, with estimated gains of €119 billion per year for the EU and €95 billion per year for the US by 2027. These gains are expected to come from reduced tariffs, increased trade, and harmonized regulations.

• Challenges in Negotiations:

  • The EU and US have made progress on tariff reductions but face significant challenges in aligning on regulations and standards.
  • The UK's decision to leave the EU complicates the negotiations, as it may weaken the EU's international standing and influence.
  • The negotiation process is difficult due to the differing political structures and priorities of the EU and US, with the US being more capable of strategic leadership.

• Strategic Risks:

  • TTIP's emphasis on Western values may be perceived as an attempt to reassert the old world order, potentially alienating emerging economies.
  • There is a risk of failure, which could damage the EU and US's credibility and send a negative signal to the rest of the world about their ability to cooperate.

• Soft Power and Geographical Reach:

  • TTIP could enhance soft power if it attracts other countries like Turkey, but its potential is limited without broader participation.
  • The EU and US have a strong influence on global standards due to their large markets, but this may diminish over time as emerging economies grow.

• Security and Energy:

  • The security benefits of TTIP are marginal and overhyped. There is little expected impact on energy security due to the limited volume of US LNG exports to the EU.
  • The US has not included defence procurement in TTIP, which is a strategic oversight.

Strategic Rationales for TTIP

International Leadership

• Global Public Goods:

  • TTIP can help establish technical standards that benefit all countries by reducing wasteful competition and lowering compliance costs.
  • Examples include automobile safety standards and pharmaceutical regulations, where harmonization would reduce clinical trial duplication and improve access to medicines.

• Flexible Standards:

  • Some international rules, such as environmental standards, need to be adaptable to local conditions.
  • The EU and US should avoid imposing rigid, one-size-fits-all rules that may not be suitable for all countries.

• Conflict-Prone Rules:

  • Rules that conflict with other countries' interests, such as intellectual property and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), can lead to tensions.
  • The EU and US may face resistance from developing countries that want cheaper access to goods or prefer SOEs as a tool for development.

Soft Power

• TTIP has the potential to enhance the soft power of both the EU and the US, but this will only be maximized if other strategically important countries, such as Turkey, join the agreement.
• The transatlantic market's influence is significant, especially in sectors like manufacturing and services, which are still under-defined in terms of international rules.

Security

• TTIP's security benefits are minimal and largely intangible.
• The US has not included defence-related provisions, which limits its strategic utility in this area.
• Energy security benefits are also limited due to the relatively small volume of US LNG exports to the EU.

Decisive Factors for Strategic Impact

1. Alignment of EU and US Policy-Makers:

   • The EU and US must overcome their differences and work towards a shared strategic vision for TTIP.
   • The US is more likely to drive the strategic direction of TTIP due to its more unified approach to trade policy.

2. Political and Institutional Support:

   • The EU faces challenges in maintaining unity among its member states, especially with the UK's departure.
   • The US must secure Congressional approval, which may be difficult, particularly in election years.

3. Global Perception and Acceptance:

   • The strategic success of TTIP depends on how it is perceived globally.
   • If TTIP is seen as a tool for imposing Western values, it may alienate emerging economies and reduce its effectiveness.

Conclusion

TTIP has the potential to be a strategic and economic success, but its impact is constrained by the differences between the EU and the US, the UK's exit from the EU, and the challenges of securing domestic political support. The strategic benefits of TTIP are likely to be realized only if the EU can overcome internal divisions and the US can maintain a consistent and forward-looking trade policy. The agreement's success will also depend on how it is framed and perceived by other countries, particularly in the context of a shifting global economic order.