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Zero-Emission Vehicles Factbook Summary

Core Content

This report, Zero-Emission Vehicles Factbook, is a special edition from BloombergNEF (BNEF) released in conjunction with COP28. It provides a comprehensive overview of the global transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs), and highlights the progress, challenges, and future outlook for the sector.

Main Points

1. ZEV Adoption Progress

• Global ZEV adoption has continued to accelerate despite geopolitical and economic challenges.
• In 2023, 15.5% of new cars sold globally were electric, up from 8.9% in 2021 and 14% in 2022.
• Annual passenger EV sales are projected to reach 14.2 million units, a 60% increase from 2022.
• Automakers have collectively committed to sell 47 million EVs annually by 2030.
• ZEVs now account for ~3% of the global four-wheeled vehicle fleet, with ~29 million being true zero-emission vehicles (excluding PHEVs).

2. Market Growth and Regional Trends

• The global four-wheeled vehicle fleet is growing, reaching 1.57 billion units in 2023, with the US, China, and Europe being the largest markets.
• China is expected to represent ~23% of the global four-wheeled vehicle fleet by the end of 2023, surpassing the US.
• EV adoption is growing fastest in China and Europe, while India, Japan, and the Rest of World still lag behind, with EV share below 5% in many regions.
• India crossed the 1% EV adoption threshold in 2022, reaching 2% in 1H 2023.

3. ZEV Market Drivers

• Policy support and consumer interest are the main drivers of ZEV adoption.
• The Inflation Reduction Act in the US and purchase subsidies in Japan are expected to boost EV uptake.
• Low-cost EVs and expanding production capacity have been key to growth in emerging economies like India, Thailand, and Indonesia.

4. ZEV Fleet Projections

• By 2040, the global ZEV fleet is projected to reach 696 million vehicles, with 44% of passenger vehicles and 27% of commercial vehicles expected to be ZEVs.
• In the base-case Economic Transition Scenario, ZEVs could account for 75% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2040.
• The IEA has also increased its ZEV adoption forecast, projecting 36% BEV share of passenger vehicle sales by 2030.

5. ZEV Types and Trends

• BEVs dominate the ZEV market, making up ~11% of global passenger vehicle sales in 1H 2023, while PHEVs are less than 5% and FCVs are under 0.1%.
• FCVs have seen declining sales, with 15,000 units sold in 2022, a 12% drop from the previous year.
• Hydrogen refueling infrastructure is still underdeveloped, with only 905 stations globally in 2022, mostly in Japan and South Korea.

6. Emissions and Fuel Displacement

• ZEVs are helping to avoid emissions and displace oil demand in the transport sector.
• In 2023, EVs and FCVs are expected to avoid ~112 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually, up from ~88 million metric tons in 2020.
• ZEVs are expected to displace ~1.8 million barrels of oil per day, or ~4.1% of global road transport oil demand, up from 1.5 million barrels in 2022.
• Two- and three-wheeled EVs account for ~60% of the oil demand avoided in 2023.

7. Challenges and Outlook

• Ambition from both governments and automakers has stalled, with few new ZEV targets announced in 2023.
• Policy support and investment in infrastructure are critical to accelerating ZEV adoption in emerging economies.
• Continued international collaboration is needed to support the transition, especially in regions with low EV adoption rates.

Key Information

• Global EV sales reached 10.5 million units in 2022, growing by 68% compared to 2021.
• China leads the global EV market, with ~19% of its car sales being EVs in 1H 2023.
• Europe is the second-largest ZEV market, with ~6.6 million ZEVs on the road as of 2023.
• Commercial ZEVs are also growing, particularly in light commercial vehicles and delivery vans, with China leading in this segment.
• India is making notable progress, with ~2.4% of its passenger vehicle sales being EVs in 1H 2023.

Conclusion

The transition to ZEVs is accelerating, but ambition remains low, and growth is uneven across regions. While BEVs are driving the majority of ZEV adoption, FCVs are struggling to gain traction. Emerging economies are showing promise, but policy and infrastructure gaps are still major barriers. The report emphasizes the need for long-term, stable policies and international support to ensure the Paris Agreement goals are met and decarbonization of transport is achieved.