战略与国际研究中心-Misplaced-priorities_-Turkish-assessments-of-US-Power_10页_614kb

MISPLACED PRIORITY: TURKISH ASSESSMENTS OF U.S. POWER

Core Content

This document analyzes the evolving attitudes of Turkish elites and the public toward the United States, highlighting a significant decline in trust and respect for American influence, despite continued reliance on U.S. defense commitments. The focus is on how these attitudes have been shaped by U.S. foreign policy decisions, particularly in the Middle East, and how Turkey's growing self-confidence and regional diplomacy have influenced its strategic posture.

Main Views

• Wary Respect for U.S. Power: Turkish elites and the public maintain a cautious respect for American economic and military strength but are skeptical about its alignment with Turkish interests.
• Discontent with U.S. Policies: The Iraq War, the U.S. war on terrorism, and the treatment of Turkey as a model for Islamic countries have fueled skepticism and anti-American sentiment.
• Erosion of Ideational Influence: Turkish views on American culture, business, and democratic ideas have deteriorated significantly over the past decade.
• Rise of Turkish Self-Confidence: Turkey's economic growth and diplomatic engagement with Russia, the Middle East, and Asia have increased its sense of relative power.
• Shifting Priorities: Turkish leaders now view the U.S. as a potential threat and are more willing to act independently in foreign policy matters.
• NATO's Declining Image: Public and elite perceptions of NATO's importance to Turkey's security have declined, partly due to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the perceived lack of U.S. support for Turkey's regional interests.

Key Information

U.S.-Turkey Relations

• Historical Context: During the Cold War, relations were based on mutual security commitments and U.S. support for Turkey's secular elite and European integration.
• Post-2001 Shift: The Iraq War and the U.S. war on terrorism have led to significant strain in U.S.-Turkey relations.
• Public Opinion: In 2003, 52% of Turks had a positive opinion of the U.S., which dropped to 15% and then to 9% in 2007, the lowest in the Middle East.
• Elite Discontent: Turkish elites have grown disillusioned with U.S. policies, especially regarding the Middle East and democracy promotion.

Domestic Politics

• AKP Dominance: The Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has dominated Turkish politics since 2002.
• Secular vs. Islamist Tensions: The AKP's shift toward religious tolerance and its alignment with the Islamic world has led to tensions with secularist parties like the CHP and MHP.
• CHP's Reforms: The new CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is attempting to reduce nationalist rhetoric and adopt a more pro-Western stance.

Regional Dynamics

• Balancing Act: Turkey has pursued a realpolitik approach to balance its relations with the U.S., Russia, and Middle Eastern neighbors.
• Iran and Nuclear Policy: Turkey supports Iran's right to a full nuclear fuel cycle but opposes nuclear weapons. It has acted as an intermediary in nuclear negotiations with Iran.
• Libya Crisis: Turkey supported UN Resolution 1973 but opposed military intervention, showing its preference for diplomatic solutions and its regional interests.
• Russia Relations: Turkey has deepened its economic and energy ties with Russia, becoming its leading trade partner. This has led to concerns about Russian leverage over Turkey.

Implications for U.S. Policy

• Need for Engagement: U.S. policy toward Turkey must be carefully managed, especially in the Middle East.
• Iraq Stabilization: U.S.-Turkey cooperation in stabilizing Iraq is crucial for maintaining a positive relationship.
• Regional Partnerships: The U.S. should leverage Turkey's regional influence to promote peace and counter Iranian dominance.
• Missile Defense and NATO: Turkey is hesitant to accept U.S. or NATO missile defense systems, reflecting its desire for strategic independence.

Conclusion

Turkey's evolving relationship with the U.S. is marked by a mix of reliance and skepticism. While it values NATO's security guarantees, it is increasingly asserting its own foreign policy priorities and regional influence. The U.S. must recognize this shift and work to align its policies with Turkey's interests, especially in the Middle East, to maintain a strong and cooperative partnership.