中国公用事业行业-上调AI用电需求预测_25页_11mb

China Utilities Sector Summary - May 2026

Core Content Overview

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the China utilities sector, with a particular focus on power demand growth, data center expansion, renewable energy installations, and stock recommendations for key utilities. It also outlines the performance of various fuel types in terms of power generation and utilization, along with insights into power tariffs and coal prices.

AI Power Demand Growth

• Strong Growth in AI-Related Power Demand: China's AI-related power demand has shown strong growth, driven by the expansion of data centers and digital infrastructure. In April 2026, the tertiary sector (including IT services) saw a $+8.9%$ YoY increase in power consumption, with internet and data services recording a sharp $42.8%$ YoY increase.
• Data Center Capacity Expansion: Data center capacity in China grew significantly, reaching 14.45mn standard racks by 1Q26, up $39%$ YoY. This marks a clear acceleration from low-teens growth in 2024 and a $23%$ CAGR over 2019–2024.
• Updated Forecasts: The report updates the 2030 data center power demand estimate to 805bn kWh, representing a $46%$ increase from previous estimates. This would account for $6%$ of China's total electricity consumption, up from $4.1%$ previously.
• Industry Outlook: The AI-related power demand is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 27% for 2025–2030, significantly outpacing the overall power demand growth.

Power Demand in April 2026

• Overall Growth: China's total power consumption in April 2026 increased by $6.0%$ YoY, a notable acceleration from the $+3.5%$ in March 2026.
• Sectoral Breakdown:
  • Primary (Agricultural): $+2.0%$ YoY
  • Secondary (Industrial): $+5.3%$ YoY
  • Tertiary (Service): $+8.9%$ YoY
  • Residential: $+6.0%$ YoY
• IT Sector: The IT sector's power demand in April 2026 increased by $19%$ YoY, consistent with the growth observed in 2H25.

Power Supply and Generation

• Total Power Generation: In April 2026, China's total power generation volume increased by $2.6%$ YoY to 744bn kWh.
• Fuel Type Performance:
  • Thermal: Increased by $3.1%$ YoY, with utilization hours down $3.3%$ YoY.
  • Hydro: Surged by $12.2%$ YoY, with utilization hours up $8.9%$ YoY.
  • Nuclear: Utilization hours decreased by $16.1%$ YoY.
  • Wind: Utilization hours dropped by $18.1%$ YoY.
  • Solar: Utilization hours increased by $1.1%$ YoY.
• Generation Breakdown in April 2026:
  • Thermal: 66%
  • Hydro: 11%
  • Nuclear: 5%
  • Wind: 12%
  • Solar: 6%

Renewable Energy Installations

• Solar: New installations in April 2026 were 9.5GW, down $79%$ YoY. Full-year 2026 estimates at 215GW, down $32%$ YoY.
• Wind: New installations in April 2026 were 5.5GW, up $3%$ YoY. Projected to add 110GW in 2026E and 120GW in 2027E.
• Power Capacity Additions in April 2026:
  • Thermal: 4.0GW
  • Hydro: 1.0GW
  • Nuclear: 2.4GW
  • Wind: 5.5GW
  • Solar: 9.5GW

Stock Recommendations

• Top Picks:
  • China Resources Power (0836.HK): Strong dividend yield (>5%) and potential for AI-related load growth.
  • China Yangtze Power (600900.SS): Stable earnings and payout visibility due to hydro profile; key variable is summer water inflows.
  • China Gas (0384.HK): Highest dividend yield (~7%) among utilities, with a proposed share option scheme targeting ~15% annual profit growth through FY31.

Valuation Comparison

Key Insights and Trends

• Data Center Growth: The data center sector is a major driver of AI power demand, with continued expansion and a rising share of total electricity consumption.
• Solar Installations: Solar installations have slowed significantly, with a 79% YoY decline in April 2026, attributed to policy-driven forward movement in 2025.
• Tariffs and Coal Prices: Thermal market-based tariffs declined by 9–13% YoY in January–May 2026, despite rising coal prices. The Qinhuangdao spot thermal coal price rose by 15% since late February and was 5% higher in 5M26 than in 5M25.
• Sectoral Performance: The tertiary sector (including IT) is the fastest-growing in terms of power demand, with continued momentum from AI and data center expansion.

Conclusion

The China utilities sector is witnessing significant growth in AI and data center-related power demand, which is expected to continue through 2030. However, solar installations have slowed, and the overall growth in power demand is expected to moderate. The report highlights key players in the sector with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in the context of the increasing reliance on data centers and the evolving energy mix.