战略与国际研究中心-The-Strategic-Impact-of-Russian-Arms-Sales-and-Technology-Transfers_87页_295kb

Summary of "The Strategic Impact of Russian Arms Sales and Technology Transfers"

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, provides an in-depth analysis of the strategic implications of Russian arms sales and technology transfers to developing countries, particularly those that pose a threat to the United States and its allies. It examines the historical context, current trends, and future possibilities of these transfers, highlighting how they affect global military balances and US security.

Main Points

US Strengths and Vulnerabilities

• The US is the world's preeminent superpower, largely due to the collapse of its Cold War adversaries and its technological superiority.
• However, the US faces significant vulnerabilities:
  • Over-extended active force structure
  • Manpower issues in terms of numbers and quality
  • Declining readiness and sustainability
  • Inability to sustain prolonged conflicts or occupy foreign territories
  • Vulnerability to weapons of mass destruction and terrorism
  • Political challenges in maintaining public support for military actions

US Conventional Edge

• The US has a strong conventional military edge, derived from:
  • Professional military forces
  • Advanced tactics, technology, and training
  • Superior night and all-weather warfare capabilities
  • Integration of C4I/BM/T/BDA systems and precision-guided weapons
  • Effective interdiction bombing and modern battlefield operations

Weaknesses of Potential Opponents

• Most potential opponents of the US lack the following:
  • Strategic assessment capability
  • Interoperability and standardization
  • Modern combat training and readiness
  • Advanced military technology and modernization
  • Effective command and control systems
  • Capability to conduct sustained warfare or defend against US air superiority

Key Trends in Arms Transfers

Global Arms Transfer Trends (1986–1996)

• There was a significant decline in arms exports from the former Soviet Union (FSU), China, and North Korea due to the end of the Cold War and economic constraints.
• The US and NATO maintained a dominant share of arms exports during this period.
• The developing world saw a decrease in arms imports, partly due to sanctions and reduced demand from major states like Iraq and Libya.

Russian Arms Transfers

• Russian arms exports declined sharply after the Cold War, especially in the early 1990s, but began to recover by the late 1990s.
• Russia's arms exports have become more focused on the developing world, with a significant increase in transfers to Asia, particularly China.
• Russian arms production also declined during this period, reflecting the country's economic and political instability.

Chinese Arms Transfers

• China's arms exports decreased in the early 1990s but stabilized by the late 1990s.
• China has been increasing its arms exports to the developing world, especially to countries like Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
• China's military modernization has been supported by both domestic production and technology transfers from Russia and other sources.

North Korean Arms Transfers

• North Korea's arms exports fluctuated during the period, but the data is limited and unreliable.
• The country's exports were heavily dependent on energy and military technology, but its ability to sustain arms exports has been constrained by economic and political issues.

Technology Transfer and Proliferation

• Technology transfer is becoming more important than the sale of major weapons.
• Russia and China are increasingly transferring technology for indigenous production and dual-use items.
• This trend has enabled countries like China, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Syria to develop or modify complex military equipment, including long-range missiles and weapons of mass destruction.
• Technology transfers can be "invisible" and may involve design, industrial techniques, and advisory services, which can be more damaging than conventional arms.

Strategic Implications

• Russia's role in arms transfers is becoming more strategic, with a focus on regions like Asia and the Middle East.
• The US is increasingly vulnerable to these transfers, especially in areas where it has planned for major regional contingencies.
• The future of arms transfers is uncertain, but the trend suggests that Russia and China will continue to play a significant role in the proliferation of advanced military technologies.

Challenges in Data Collection

• Reliable and unclassified data on arms transfers is limited, especially for countries like North Korea.
• The data available is often incomplete or misleading, with many estimates based on private sources rather than objective analysis.
• The US intelligence community provides some insights, but they are not always detailed or accurate.

Conclusion

• While the US remains a dominant military power, its ability to maintain this edge is being challenged by the growing arms and technology transfers to potential adversaries.
• Russia and China are key players in this trend, with increasing influence in the developing world.
• The future of global military balance depends on the ability of the US to counter these transfers and maintain its strategic advantages.