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CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Summary

Episode 102: The North Korean Nuclear Dilemma – Part II

Host: Paul Haenle
Guest: Jia Qingguo
Date: February 13, 2018

Core Content

This episode of the Carnegie-Tsinghua China in the World Podcast focuses on the escalating tensions surrounding North Korea's nuclear program and the potential for military conflict. The discussion centers on the dilemma faced by the United States and China in deciding whether to use force or allow North Korea to develop nuclear capabilities. Jia Qingguo, a professor and expert on North Korea, shares his insights on the risks and consequences of both options.

Main Views

• Risk of Military Conflict:
  Jia expresses strong pessimism about the likelihood of military conflict, not because any party desires it, but due to the high stakes and unpredictable outcomes. He highlights that even Kim Jong-un does not want a nuclear war, but the situation is so dire that the risk of conflict remains high.

• Potential Consequences of Inaction:
  Allowing North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons could lead to several dangerous outcomes, including:

  • North Korea using nuclear capabilities to blackmail South Korea and other countries.
  • The collapse of the international nonproliferation regime.
  • Proliferation of nuclear technology to non-state actors.
  • A potential crisis that could destabilize the region.

• Stability of the Kim Regime:
  Jia believes that Kim Jong-un has managed to consolidate power unexpectedly, despite his youth and lack of experience. However, he acknowledges that the regime's stability is not guaranteed and that internal pressures or external sanctions could lead to unforeseen changes.

• Internal Dynamics of North Korea:
  While Jia does not see visible cracks in the North Korean elite, he notes that the regime faces significant internal challenges, including economic hardship and the risk of a power struggle. Senior officials may privately question Kim's policies but are unlikely to do so openly.

Key Information

• Contingency Planning:
  Jia argues that the time is ripe for China and the United States to engage in contingency planning for potential crises in North Korea. He emphasizes the need for coordination to avoid accidental clashes and to manage the situation effectively.

• Control of Nuclear Facilities:
  One of the key areas for discussion is who should control North Korea's nuclear facilities in the event of a crisis. Both China and the US have an interest in preventing these facilities from falling into the wrong hands, but there are concerns about the implications of such cooperation.

• Opposition in China:
  Jia acknowledges that there are opposing voices in China, particularly from those who fear that closer US-China cooperation could be perceived as a threat to North Korea and potentially provoke its hostility. Some may also misinterpret his calls for collaboration as advocating for a joint attack.

• Military Involvement:
  While the discussion is primarily political, Jia notes that military coordination is essential. However, he is uncertain whether the Chinese military (PLA) is fully supportive of such dialogues, suggesting that the debate is still in its early stages.

Conclusion

Jia Qingguo underscores the gravity of the North Korean nuclear issue and the need for a more cooperative and strategic approach between China and the US. He believes that the situation has reached a critical point, and that contingency planning is not only important but necessary to prevent unintended escalation. Despite potential resistance within China, he remains optimistic that the discourse is shifting toward more constructive engagement.