2002-01-23-皮尤-New_Lows_From_New_Highs_29页_250kb

Summary: Latino Economic Losses in the Current Recession

Core Content

This report by the Pew Hispanic Center, authored by Roberto Suro and B. Lindsay Lowell, analyzes the impact of the current recession on the Latino population in the United States. It highlights the unique challenges faced by Latinos, particularly the second generation, in the context of economic downturns, and forecasts the long-term implications of these losses.

Main Findings

• Economic Gains in the 1990s: Latinos experienced significant economic growth during the 1990s, with median family income rising by 27% from 1995 to 2000. The poorest Latinos saw the largest gains, contributing to a reduction in the overall poverty rate by one-third.

• High Vulnerability to Recession: Despite these gains, the Latino population is more vulnerable to job losses during recessions due to their concentration in low-skilled jobs and industries heavily affected by economic downturns.

• Unemployment Trends:

  • The Hispanic unemployment rate reached 7.8% in December 2001, up from 6.2% in March 2001.
  • The second generation (U.S.-born children of immigrant parents) is experiencing the highest unemployment rates, with some reaching over 9%.
  • Mexican and female Hispanic workers are particularly affected, with higher unemployment rates compared to other groups.

• Industry-Specific Job Losses:

  • Manufacturing and retail trade are the most affected industries, accounting for 40% of all Hispanic unemployment.
  • The hotel and hospitality industry, which was hit hard by the 9/11 attacks, has seen a significant impact on Latino employment.

• Regional Disparities:

  • Latino unemployment rates are higher in California and New York compared to the national average.
  • In New York City, the unemployment rate for Latinos could reach up to 15% by the end of 2002, significantly higher than in Los Angeles.

• Economic Recovery Forecast:

  • National Hispanic unemployment is projected to peak at 8.5% in the second quarter of 2002, with recovery expected to take until 2004.
  • Under less optimistic scenarios, unemployment could reach 10% in 2003, affecting 1.5 million Latinos.

• Resource Constraints:

  • Many Latino households have minimal savings and limited access to public safety-net programs like unemployment insurance and food stamps.
  • Only 40% of the 1.26 million unemployed Latinos in December 2001 received unemployment benefits.

• Social and Economic Interdependence:

  • Latino-owned businesses are concentrated in Hispanic communities, making them more susceptible to economic downturns due to reliance on other Latinos as both employees and customers.
  • This "enclave" effect can amplify job losses and economic hardship during a recession.

Key Points

• Second Generation Challenges:

  • The second generation, despite being more educated and integrated into the U.S. labor market, faces higher unemployment due to their youth and limited experience.
  • They are more likely to use formal job-search methods, which may not be as effective in a recession.

• Immigrant Vulnerability:

  • Immigrants, especially those from Mexico, are concentrated in low-skilled jobs and have been disproportionately affected by job losses.
  • They are less likely to have access to safety-net programs due to their immigration status.

• Long-Term Impact:

  • The long-term effects of the recession could be more severe for Latinos than for other groups, given their economic position and the nature of their employment.
  • The recession may stall the progress of the growing Latino middle class and create lasting economic setbacks.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the current recession is likely to have significant and long-lasting effects on the Latino population, particularly the second generation and low-skilled workers. The combination of economic vulnerability, industry concentration, and limited access to resources makes it harder for Latinos to weather the downturn. The report also warns that the economic progress made during the 1990s expansion may be at risk, and that the impact of the recession on Latinos could be more severe than on other population groups.

Notes

• The report is based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and includes analyses from leading economists.
• It is a non-partisan research project by the Pew Hispanic Center, supported by The Pew Charitable Trusts.
• The findings emphasize the need for targeted economic support and policies that address the specific challenges faced by the Latino community.