2015年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Policy_in_Practice___Benchmarking_Financial_Sector_Strategies_Around_the_World_36页_383kb

Financial Policy in Practice: Benchmarking Financial Sector Strategies Around the World

Core Content Overview

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of national financial sector strategies across 78 countries, focusing on their formulation, implementation, and consideration of trade-offs between financial development and systemic risk management. It is the first study of its kind to benchmark these strategies against various country characteristics. The findings highlight the influence of legal systems, income levels, financial depth, foreign ownership, and past banking crises on the scope and quality of financial sector strategies.

Main Views and Key Findings

• Financial Sector Strategies Exist but Are Limited in Scope:

  • Only 37% of the 78 countries in the sample have a formal financial sector strategy.
  • Most strategies are broad in nature, focusing on aspirations rather than specific, quantifiable objectives.
  • Only 27% of the strategies include quantifiable indicators in their objectives, while 65% have clearly defined goals.

• Systemic Risk Management is Underrepresented:

  • Systemic risk is mentioned in 88% of strategies, but only 38% include specific risk indicators.
  • Only 51% of strategies identify policy tools for maintaining systemic risk at an acceptable level.
  • Systemic risk is generally discussed in general terms, with few strategies addressing the trade-offs between financial development and risk management.

• Implementation Planning is Often Lacking:

  • 56% of strategies identify policy tools for achieving their goals, while 44% lack credible support.
  • Clear assignment of responsibility to government agencies for implementation is rare, with only 53% of strategies assigning responsibility for development goals and 54% for systemic risk management.
  • Central banks are typically assigned the task of managing systemic risk, but implementation details are often absent or vague.

• Trade-offs Between Financial Development and Systemic Risk Are Rarely Considered:

  • Only 26% of countries address trade-offs between financial development and systemic risk in their strategies.
  • 42% of countries commit to both financial development and systemic risk management without considering trade-offs.
  • The paper emphasizes that these trade-offs are critical for effective financial policy formulation.

• Country Characteristics Influence Strategy Formulation:

  • Legal System: Countries with civil or religious law systems are more likely to address trade-offs between financial development and stability.
  • Income Level: As per capita income increases, countries focus less on development objectives and systemic risk.
  • Financial Depth and Inclusion: As financial inclusion and market depth increase, the focus on systemic risk and development objectives decreases.
  • Foreign Ownership: Greater foreign ownership in the financial sector increases attention to the trade-off between financial development and risk management.
  • Banking Crisis Experience: Countries with past banking crises are more aware of challenges and more likely to plan for implementation. However, as time passes, this experience may become counterproductive.

Key Information on Strategy Components

• Development Objectives:

  • Strategies often lack specific, measurable goals.
  • They tend to focus on general aspirations like financial stability, access to finance, and competition.
  • Quantifiable indicators such as GDP growth or specific financial metrics are rarely included.

• Systemic Risk Identification and Management:

  • Systemic risks are generally acknowledged but not quantified.
  • Risk indicators such as loan-to-value ratios or currency exposure are not commonly used.
  • Strategies often fail to identify specific systemic risks, such as private sector indebtedness or financial institution behavior.

• Implementation Planning:

  • Implementation is often mentioned in general terms.
  • There is a lack of detailed plans, clear responsibility assignments, and institutional monitoring processes.
  • Central banks are typically responsible for managing systemic risk, but the process is not well-documented.

• Trade-off Consideration:

  • Trade-offs between financial development and systemic risk are rarely addressed in strategies.
  • The paper argues that these trade-offs are essential for balancing growth and stability in the financial system.

Conclusion and Implications

The paper concludes that while many countries have financial sector strategies, they often fail to adequately address the trade-offs between financial development and systemic risk. The analysis suggests that the quality and scope of these strategies are influenced by a range of country-specific factors, including legal systems, income levels, financial depth, and crisis experiences. The findings call for more comprehensive and balanced financial sector strategies that consider both development goals and risk management in detail, especially in the context of increasing financial inclusion and market depth.

Methodology Summary

• Data Sources: Financial sector strategies, stability reports, national development strategies, and financial inclusion strategies.
• Sample Size: 78 countries across different income levels, regions, and financial systems.
• Analysis Approach:
  • Benchmarking of strategies against country characteristics.
  • Regression analysis using a count variable to model the presence of key attributes in strategies.
  • Use of a stratified sample to ensure geographic and structural diversity.

Policy Recommendations

• Strategies should include clear, specific, and measurable development objectives.
• Systemic risk should be identified, quantified, and managed with appropriate policy tools.
• Implementation planning must be detailed, with clear responsibility assignments and monitoring mechanisms.
• Trade-offs between financial development and systemic risk must be explicitly addressed in strategy formulation.