亚开行-使用贝叶斯状态空间方法估计区域整合（英）-2024.1-44页_1mb

This paper addresses the challenge of estimating regional economic integration in Asia and the Pacific due to incomplete data, using a Bayesian state-space approach with a dynamic factor model. The methodology handles missing values and aggregates indicators across four dimensions: trade, foreign direct investments (FDI), finance, and migration, yielding bilateral economic integration (BEI) indexes. Key findings show that the Regional Integration Index (RII) declined slightly in recent years, with integration networks becoming more centered around the People's Republic of China. The analysis highlights trends from 2000 to 2021, noting variations by subregions and economies, such as declining integration in Central Asia and South Asia during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper suggests future research to expand coverage, estimate global integration, and enhance model detail for better policy insights.