世界银行-贸易促进组织对出口的影响_来自新冠肺炎疫情的证据（英）-2025.8_29页_628kb

Summary

• Objective: To analyze the impact of Trade Promotion Organizations (TPOs) during the COVID-19 pandemic on exports using a World Bank survey.

• Methodology:

  • Utilizing a novel dataset from the World Bank survey on TPOs during COVID-19.
  • Employing a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator to capture export dynamics.
  • Leveraging the pandemic’s trade shocks as an exogenous instrument to address endogeneity.

• Key Findings:

  • Impact of TPO Budgets: Increases in TPO budgets significantly boosted exports during negative trade shocks but had little to no effect during recovery phases.
  • RoI Effectiveness: TPOs proved effective in stabilizing exports during downturns, particularly in trade-intensive sectors. Returns were counter-cyclical and sector-specific.
  • E-commerce Programs: Adoption of e-commerce training by TPOs hindered export performance during downturns and showed limited impact during recoveries. Programs were ineffective for sectors not suited to online trade.
  • Marginal Impacts: Positive effects were primarily observed along product and destination intensive margins, with minimal impact on extensive margins.
  • Sectoral Differences: TPO responses varied across income levels (budget cuts in low-income countries), limiting their effectiveness in vulnerable regions.

• Robustness/Implications:

  • Endogeneity and aggregation biases were addressed, yielding consistent results.
  • Policy recommendations include aligning TPO budgets with counter-cyclical strategies and focusing on specific sectors/programs during downturns for maximum impact.