2026_AI对就业的影响_重塑为主_替代为辅研究报告_21页_2mb

AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces

Core Content

This document explores the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the US labor market over the next two to three years. It emphasizes that AI will not only replace some jobs but will also reshape a significant portion of the workforce, requiring a strategic approach to upskilling, reskilling, and redefining job roles.

Main Points

• Job Reshaping Over Replacement: Over the next two to three years, 50% to 55% of US jobs are expected to be reshaped by AI, while 10% to 15% could be eliminated within five years.
• Role vs. Job: A role refers to a type of work defined by responsibilities, while a job is a specific position within that role. The analysis is conducted at the role level to understand broader labor market trends.
• AI Labor Disruption Segments: The US workforce is divided into six categories based on AI's impact:
  • Amplified Roles: AI augments human capabilities, and employment may remain stable or grow. These roles represent 5% of current jobs.
  • Rebalanced Roles: AI automates routine tasks while expanding complex responsibilities. These roles make up 14% of current jobs.
  • Divergent Roles: AI substitutes for human tasks, but demand remains expandable. These roles account for 12% of current jobs.
  • Substituted Roles: AI directly replaces human tasks in roles with capped demand. These roles make up 12% of current jobs.
  • Enabled Roles: AI becomes a part of daily work, improving efficiency and accuracy. These roles represent 23% of current jobs.
  • Limited-Exposure Roles: AI has minimal impact due to the high dependency on human presence, judgment, and relationships. These roles account for 34% of current jobs.

Key Factors Influencing AI Impact

1. Task Automation Potential

   • AI can automate tasks that are structured, rule-based, and do not require significant human interaction or judgment.
   • Roles with less than 40% automation potential are classified as lower automation, with further segmentation into enabled and limited-exposure roles.

2. Substitution vs. Augmentation

   • Substitution occurs when AI replaces human labor, particularly in roles with high structure and repeatability.
   • Augmentation happens when AI enhances human capabilities, especially in roles requiring emotional intelligence, complex judgment, and interpersonal skills.

3. Demand Expandability

   • If AI reduces costs and increases productivity, it may unlock new demand for outputs, leading to employment growth or stability.
   • If demand is bounded, productivity gains are more likely to reduce the number of workers needed.

Implications for Business Leaders

• Strategic Workforce Planning: Leaders must adopt a scaled, strategic approach to upskilling and reskilling to manage the transformation.
• Career Ladder Restructuring: As AI reshapes work, the structure of career paths within organizations must be rethought.
• Talent Mobility and Development: Companies should prioritize reskilling, mobility, and capability building to ensure employees can transition into new or evolved roles.
• Avoiding Productivity Loss: Cutting workforce beyond AI's replacement potential may lead to declines in productivity, loss of institutional knowledge, and talent attrition.

Examples of AI Impact

• Call Center Representatives: Likely to be substituted as AI handles routine tasks, leading to a decline in entry-level positions but potential for higher-value roles.
• Software Engineers: Currently in the amplified category, but may move to divergent if AI advances significantly.
• Legal Professionals: Many roles are in the amplified category, with AI supporting tasks like research and drafting.
• Clinical Assistants and Lab Technicians: In the enabled category, where AI supports documentation and diagnostics but does not replace human involvement.
• Physicians and Teachers: Represent limited-exposure roles, where AI has minimal impact due to the necessity of human judgment and interpersonal interaction.

Limitations and Considerations

• The analysis is based on current AI capabilities and does not account for future breakthroughs or macroeconomic factors such as inflation or geopolitical changes.
• The model focuses on large language models and autonomous driving technologies, excluding other forms of AI like physical robotics.
• The scale of impact is not uniform across all industries, with some experiencing job creation and others facing job loss or reshaping.

Conclusion

AI will transform the US labor market more than it will replace jobs. While some roles may be eliminated, the majority will be reshaped, requiring a shift in how work is performed and the skills needed to succeed. Business leaders must prepare for this change by investing in workforce development, strategic upskilling, and redefining job roles to stay competitive and retain talent.