2003年-ECB欧洲央行_Developments_in_general_economic_statistics_for_the_euro_area_11页_138kb

Summary of Developments in General Economic Statistics for the Euro Area

Core Content

General economic statistics for the euro area are essential for the European Central Bank (ECB) in conducting monetary policy. These statistics include price data, national accounts, short-term business statistics, labour market data, and external trade statistics. Since 1999, particularly after the adoption of the EMU Action Plan in 2000, the quality and timeliness of these statistics have improved, but significant enhancements are still needed.

Main Areas and Developments

1. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

• Core Function: The HICP is the key price index used by the ECB to assess price stability.
• Progress since 2001:
  • Flash estimates are now available at the end of the reference month.
  • Broader coverage and more harmonised practices have been achieved.
• Future Improvements:
  • Better treatment of quality changes.
  • Inclusion of expenditure on owner-occupied housing (initially on an experimental basis).

2. National Accounts

• Importance: National accounts provide a comprehensive and consistent view of the economy and are fundamental to monetary policy analysis.
• Current Status:
  • Quarterly GDP estimates are released with a time-lag of 70–120 days.
  • New breakdowns of value added and income components have been introduced.
• Upcoming Improvements:
  • Flash GDP estimates expected by 2003 (within 45 days).
  • Reduced time-lag to 70 days.
  • Introduction of non-financial accounts for the government sector.
  • Development of quarterly data for household and corporate sectors.

3. Short-Term Business Statistics

• Improvements:
  • Better timeliness and comparability in production, retail trade, and producer prices.
  • Breakdown into main industrial groupings (energy, intermediate, capital, and consumer goods).
• Ongoing Challenges:
  • Lack of data on new orders, export prices, and services sector indicators.
  • Incomplete or non-harmonised data on residential property prices and construction.
• Expected Enhancements in 2003/2004:
  • Implementation of the Regulation on short-term business statistics by all EU Member States.
  • Introduction of new indicators such as services turnover and employment data.

4. Labour Market Statistics

• Current Status:
  • Quarterly unemployment data is available with a time-lag of 30–35 days.
  • Labour cost index is now published after 90 days with improved comparability.
• Future Improvements:
  • Proxy results for the Labour Force Survey (LFS) expected in 2003.
  • Full implementation of LFS for the euro area by 2005.
  • Introduction of quarterly estimates of hours worked in 2004.

5. Opinion Surveys

• Current Status:
  • Harmonised surveys on manufacturing, construction, retail trade, and consumers are available.
• Expected Improvements:
  • Expansion of services sector coverage to include transport, hotel, and restaurant sectors in 2003.

Key Indicators and Their Timeliness

Priorities for the Years Ahead

1. Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs)

• The PEEIs outline targets and priorities for improving euro area statistics.
• They aim to align with international standards, particularly those of the US statistical system.
• Key indicators include consumer prices, national accounts, business statistics, and trade data.
• Implementation of these indicators is targeted for completion by 2005.

2. Services Sector Statistics

• The services sector contributes over 70% of euro area GDP, with market services accounting for two-thirds.
• Short-term statistics on this sector are currently limited.
• Priority areas include more detailed data on employment, labour costs, turnover, and value added for market services.

3. National Accounts as a Framework

• National accounts according to ESA 95 serve as a foundational framework for economic and monetary analysis.
• They are used to integrate and harmonise other economic statistics.
• Work is underway to develop quarterly institutional sector accounts for the euro area by 2005.

4. New Statistical Approaches

• The "first-for-Europe" principle ensures that the euro area adopts the best statistical practices.
• Statistics for the euro area are compiled from national contributions, with voluntary participation where legal frameworks are not yet in place.

Conclusion

The ECB and Eurostat have made substantial progress in improving the quality, timeliness, and comparability of euro area economic statistics. However, major gaps remain, particularly in the services sector and in the availability of comprehensive quarterly data. The implementation of the PEEIs and the development of institutional sector accounts are key priorities for the years ahead. These improvements will enhance the ECB's ability to monitor economic developments and support effective monetary policy.