兰德-国土安全国家风险特征（英文）-2018.9-81页

Homeland Security National Risk Characterization Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the risk assessment methodology developed by the RAND Corporation to support the Homeland Security National Risk Characterization (HSNRC), a key component of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) strategic planning process. The methodology aims to identify and characterize natural and manmade threats and hazards that pose the greatest risks to homeland security, thereby informing risk management priorities and resource allocation decisions.

The report was commissioned by the DHS Office of Policy—Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (SPAR) in 2016 to address the need for a transparent, repeatable, and strategic risk assessment framework. It also responds to critiques by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) of the 2010 and 2014 Quadrennial Homeland Security Reviews (QHSRs), by improving the methodology for selecting and characterizing threats and hazards.

Main Steps in the Risk Assessment Methodology

1. Select Threats and Hazards

   • Generate a list: Based on DHS strategic priorities and prior risk analyses.
   • Screening criteria are used to select threats and hazards, including:
     • Whether the threat/hazard is exogenous to the homeland security enterprise.
     • Whether it results from discrete events or persistent phenomena.
     • Its relevance to DHS strategic priorities.
     • Whether DHS has a lead or major supporting role in mitigating it.
     • Its potential impact on health, safety, security, economy, environment, and governance.
   • The final list of approved threats and hazards is shown in Table S.1.

2. Select Risk Attributes

   • Attributes are chosen to describe the consequences and uncertainty of threats and hazards.
   • Consequences are categorized into four impact types: health/safety/security, economic, environmental, and governance.
   • Uncertainty is addressed through attributes such as frequency, predictability, and precision.
   • The attributes must meet three criteria: completeness, uniqueness, and conciseness.
   • Final attributes are detailed in Tables S.2 and S.3.

3. Collect Data on Threats and Hazards

   • Data is gathered from government sources to characterize the identified threats and hazards.
   • A data call is made to DHS components, and supplementary efforts are used to address data gaps.
   • A risk summary sheet template is developed for each threat/hazard.

4. Characterize Threats and Hazards

   • Threats and hazards are described in terms of their scope, mechanisms, impacts, and uncertainty.
   • The risk summary sheets are used to inform DHS risk management priorities and are included in a For Official Use Only volume.
   • These sheets involve subjective judgments and are reviewed by DHS experts and RAND peers to ensure consistency and transparency.

Key Views and Findings

• The HSNRC methodology is strategically relevant, consistent, and transparent, designed to support DHS strategic planning and risk management.
• The risk summary sheets serve as a common reference point for discussions on homeland security risks and their management.
• Data gaps and subjectivity in impact assessments are acknowledged, and the methodology involves trade-offs between consistency and judgment.
• The HSNRC is not a comprehensive solution but a tool to inform strategic planning by providing a structured analysis of threats and hazards.
• The process includes ongoing stakeholder engagement through the DHS Risk Executive Steering Committee (Risk ESC) and its Technical Working Group (TWG).

Key Information

• Final list of threats and hazards includes:

  • Terrorist threats: Attacks on leadership, critical infrastructure, biological, chemical, nuclear, radiological, and small arms/explosives.
  • Cyber threats: Cyber attacks on infrastructure, government data, and networks.
  • Illegal activities: Counterfeit goods, human trafficking, illegal migration, mass migration, and transnational drug trafficking.
  • Natural hazards: Drought, earthquake, flooding, hurricane, space weather, tsunami, volcano, and wildfire.
  • Health hazards: Outbreaks of agricultural plant disease, foreign animal disease, and transnational communicable diseases.
  • Infrastructure hazards: Technical failures or industrial accidents due to human error or aging.
  • Other: Electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

• Risk attributes include:

  • Consequences: Deaths, injuries, national well-being, economic damages, infrastructure effects, environmental damage, and disruption of national essential functions.
  • Uncertainty: Frequency, predictability, and precision of estimates.

• Data collection faced challenges due to incomplete or inconsistent information across different threats and hazards, requiring supplementary efforts and expert review.

• Stakeholder engagement is a critical component of the methodology, ensuring alignment with DHS priorities and transparency in the process.

• The HSNRC is part of a broader strategic planning effort and is intended to support resource allocation, risk prioritization, and policy development within the homeland security enterprise.

Conclusion

The HSNRC methodology provides a structured and transparent approach to risk assessment, helping DHS to identify and prioritize threats and hazards that could significantly affect the nation. While it is not the final step in the strategic planning process, it serves as a foundation for risk management and policy development. The process includes subjective judgments and data limitations, which require careful consideration and ongoing refinement. The risk summary sheets are a key output, enabling consistent and informed decision-making across the homeland security enterprise.

Appendices and References

• Appendix A includes draft lists of threats and hazards for the 2017 HSNRC.
• Appendix B provides definitions of threats and hazards.
• Appendix C and D detail the literature consulted and attributes identified.
• References are included to support the methodology and findings.

This report is a complement to a policy-oriented report that will present key findings and management priorities. It is intended to be used by DHS and its partners in understanding and addressing homeland security risks.