2021-10-31-瑞士信贷集团-大部分预测_条件很差_这是乐观的_46页_1mb

Equity Research Summary: Asia Pacific & Australia - November 2021

Sector Overview

• China's Economy: Weak manufacturing PMIs (contraction territory in Sep 2021) and a faltering GDP trajectory.
• GDP Target 2025: Requires ~5% annual GDP growth to achieve high-income status by 2025.
• Infrastructure Focus: Likely infrastructure stimulus in 2022 is crucial to offset declining real estate investment and meet growth targets.
• Analysts: Matthew Hope, Saul Kavonic, Matt Greene, Prateek Singh, Carsten Riek, Samuel Pratama, Curt Woodworth, Fahad Tariq, Paworamon Suvarnatemee.

Diversified Metals & Mining Sector Forecast

• 2022 Outlook: Positive signaled by potential GDP stimulus despite poor conditions in 2021.
• Steel Demand 2022: Infrastructure spending expected to drive demand, as construction-related demand shrinks due to property downturn.

Iron Ore Forecasts

• Price Revisions: Prices revised downwards due to rapid demand collapse (especially China) in 2H 2021.
• Supply/Demand: 46 Mt of iron ore (domestic scrap) likely built in 2021, potentially depressing prices as demand resumes in 2022.
• Key Points:
  • China demand dropped significantly in mid-year.
  • Port stockpiles surged, preventing tightness in 2022.
  • Ex-China demand continues growth.

Metallurgical Coal Forecasts

• High Prices: Prices peaked driven by China's ban on Australian imports and domestic tightness.
• 2022 Outlook: Prices expected to ease moderately on 50 Mt deficit.
• Major Drivers:
  • China's ongoing import restrictions pose challenges.
  • Global Steel output growth expected.
  • Scarcity of high-grade Aus coal is a concern.

Thermal Coal Forecasts

• Price Spike: Prices surged due to extreme tightness, but regulatory intervention calmed sentiment.
• 2022 Outlook: Prices settling at $150-$170/t.
• Supply Constraints:
  • Climate activism hinders investment in new capacity.
  • China's dominant position continues despite shifts in supplier mix (Indonesia dominant).

Key Themes

• GDP Stimulus: The primary driver for both Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal in 2022.
• Supply Constraints: Environmental regulations globally slow new mine developments for both coal and specialized iron ore.
• Geopolitical headwinds: China's policy actions hurt specific industries.

Specifically, our base case views the average 2022 prices for thermal coal to exceed 2021 levels, driven by seaborne demand tightening despite "demand destruction".