未来能源研究所-美国上游温室气体税下边境税调整的出口退税和进口费用：估算和方法（英）-2021.10-27页_199kb

Summary of "Export Rebates and Import Charges for Border Tax Adjustments Under an Upstream US GHG Tax: Estimates and Methods"

Core Content

This working paper by Brian P. Flannery and Jan W. Mares explores the framework and methods for implementing border tax adjustments (BTAs) under an upstream US greenhouse gas (GHG) tax, with a focus on export rebates and import charges for GHG-intensive products. The paper outlines the technical background, challenges in implementation, and potential approaches to determine the Greenhouse Gas Index (GGI), which is central to calculating BTAs.

Main Points

• Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) are proposed to align with US obligations under the WTO and to address GHG leakage and competitiveness concerns in international trade.
• GGI is defined as the tonnes of CO₂e per tonne of product (or CO₂e per MWh for electricity) and is used to determine export rebates and import charges.
• Thresholds for GGI are set at 0.50 tonnes CO₂e/tonne product (or 0.25 tonnes CO₂e/MWh for electricity) to qualify products for BTAs.
• The Regulator (comprising the Treasury, Commerce, and EPA) is responsible for setting and enforcing these thresholds, especially during the start-up phase when firm-specific data may be limited.
• Initial GGI values are based on national or sectoral averages, rather than firm-specific data, to address data availability challenges in developing countries.
• Competitiveness issues arise if more efficient firms, which pay lower GHG taxes, do not qualify for export rebates, potentially leading to winners and losers in the policy.

Key Information

GGI Calculation

• GGI values are determined by:
  • Carbon content of fossil resources
  • GHG process emissions
  • GHG-intensive contributions from suppliers

Covered Products and Sectors

• Covered products are those that meet the GGI threshold.
• Covered sectors include EITE (Energy-Intensive, Trade-Exposed) industries, such as:
  • Steel, cement, gasoline, LNG
  • Coal, oil and gas production
  • Petroleum refining, electricity, and chemicals

Role of the Regulator

• The Regulator is responsible for:
  • Establishing guidelines for GGI determination
  • Setting initial import charges based on sectoral or national averages
  • Auditing and sanctioning firms for incomplete, negligent, or fraudulent GGI data
  • Requiring facility-level reporting for domestic firms

Challenges in Determining GGI

• Data availability is a major issue, particularly for developing nations.
• Estimates are based on public data, LCAs, and industry reports, but may not reflect current trends or specific facility performance.
• Differences in production methods and energy efficiency can lead to variations in GGI values across similar products.

Initial Estimation Approaches

• Analogous to VATs, GGI is used to calculate export rebates and import charges.
• Simplified methods and aggregation techniques are proposed to streamline the process.
• Voluntary public-private partnerships are suggested as a means to improve data collection and estimation.

Future Considerations

• More accurate and timely data from manufacturing facilities will be needed to refine GGI estimates.
• Improved analyses will help in setting more effective and equitable BTAs.
• Long-term goals include aligning international GHG policies and reducing GHG leakage through trade.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1 provides approximate, indicative values for the GGI of representative products across 40 sectors in the NAICS system and 20 specific products.
• Figure 1 illustrates product flows among producers of oil, natural gas, coal, petroleum products, and electricity under an upstream GHG tax.
• Figure 2 shows the flow of goods and their GHG emissions through to steel products for the market.

Acronyms and Abbreviations

• BA: Border adjustment
• BTA: Border tax adjustment
• CBAM: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
• CO₂e: Carbon dioxide equivalent
• EITE: Energy-intensive, trade-exposed
• EPA: US Environmental Protection Agency
• GGI: Greenhouse gas index
• GHG: Greenhouse gas
• LCAs: Life-cycle analyses
• NAICS: North American Industry Classification System
• WTO: World Trade Organization

Conclusion

• The GGI threshold should be set by Congress, not the Regulator, to balance competitiveness, GHG leakage, and administrative feasibility.
• BTAs are designed to be WTO-compliant, using analogies to VATs.
• As GHG tax rates increase, more efficient firms will gain a domestic advantage, while export competitiveness may be affected by the rebate eligibility.
• The Regulator should rely on public data and industry collaboration to establish initial estimates and guidelines for GGI and BTAs.