菲沙研究所-到2030年可能有四天工作制，而不会牺牲收入和生活水平（英文）-2020.6-12页_560kb

Summary of "Reducing the Work Week Through Improved Productivity"

Core Content

This document explores the potential for Canadian workers to enjoy a reduced work week while maintaining or increasing their real income through improved productivity. It emphasizes that increased leisure time and higher real compensation are both important contributors to a higher standard of living. The key to achieving this balance is enhanced labor productivity, which directly affects hourly compensation and, consequently, the ability to work fewer hours without a decline in material well-being.

Main Points

• Leisure and Income Trade-off: There is a trade-off between income and leisure, but increased productivity can allow workers to enjoy both.
• Historical Productivity Trends: From 1961 to 2012, Canadian labor productivity grew at an average rate of 1.9% per year, which is a benchmark for future growth.
• Productivity and Compensation Linkage: Empirical evidence shows a strong correlation between productivity growth and real compensation increases. A 2% annual growth in productivity could lead to a 2% increase in real hourly compensation.
• Future Potential: If Canada achieves a 2% annual labor productivity growth from 2018 to 2030, workers could work a 4-day work week year-round and still earn an additional $900 in real terms compared to 2018.
• Current Trends: From 2000 to 2018, average annual hours worked decreased by 4.5%, and real compensation per hour increased by 18%, contributing to a higher standard of living despite fewer hours.

Key Information

• Compensation Trends:
  • Inflation-adjusted annual average compensation increased by about 13% from 2000 to 2018.
  • Real compensation per hour increased by 18% over the same period.
• Hours Worked:
  • Average annual hours worked decreased by 4.5% from 2000 to 2018.
  • The average full-time worker could have reduced their hours to 4 days a week in 2018 while maintaining the 2000 compensation level.
• Productivity Growth:
  • Productivity growth in Canada's business sector from 1987 to 2016 varied between 1.30% and 1.53%.
  • A 2% annual productivity growth from 2018 to 2030 is not unrealistic, as it aligns with historical performance from 1961 to 2012.
• Impact of Productivity on Work Hours:
  • A 2% annual productivity growth could allow workers to work 4 days a week in 2030 while earning $62,591 in real terms, which is 1.5% higher than 2018's real compensation.
  • This would mean a reduction of about 341 hours per year compared to 2018, equivalent to one day per week.

Conclusion

The goal of reducing the work week to four days while maintaining or increasing real compensation is both reasonable and achievable if Canada can return to its historical productivity growth rates of around 2% per year. This would not only improve the quality of life for workers but also align with long-term economic performance. The document argues that faster productivity growth is essential to achieving this balance and that it is a realistic policy objective for the federal and provincial governments.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Shows the average annual hours worked in Canada from 2000 to 2018, indicating a decrease of 4.5%.
• Table 2: Provides average annual compensation in 2018 constant dollars, showing a 13% increase from 2000.
• Table 3: Documents the increase in compensation per hour worked, up by almost 18% from 2000 to 2018.
• Table 4: Reports the index of labor productivity for all industries in Canada from 2000 to 2018, showing a 19% increase.
• Table 5: Shows the strong correlation (R = 0.949) between average annual compensation per hour and labor productivity.
• Table 6: Summarizes historical productivity growth rates in Canada's business sector, highlighting that 2% growth is a significant improvement over recent rates.

Authors

• Steven Globerman: Resident Scholar and Addington Chair in Measurement at the Fraser Institute, and Professor Emeritus at Western Washington University.
• Joel Emes: President of Abacus Economics and a Fraser Institute Senior Fellow.