2013年-世界发展银行全球_Agriculture_and_Water_Policy___Toward_Sustainable_Inclusive_Growth_45页_1mb

Summary of Agriculture and Water Policy: Toward Sustainable Inclusive Growth

Core Content

This policy paper examines Pakistan's agriculture and water policies, focusing on their role in promoting sustainable and inclusive growth. It highlights the importance of agriculture in reducing rural poverty and outlines the key challenges and recommendations for improving productivity and efficiency in the sector.

Main Points

• Agricultural Performance and Poverty Reduction:

  • Pakistan's economy has grown at an average real GDP rate of 4.9% per year between 2000 and 2010, while agricultural value added has grown at a slower rate of 3.3%.
  • Agriculture remains a major contributor to employment and foreign exchange, with more than 40% of total employment and over 11% of exports directly linked to the sector.
  • Despite overall poverty reduction, agricultural performance has been weak, limiting its contribution to poverty alleviation. Between 2001-02 and 2007-08, farm income growth accounted for 3.2 percentage points of the overall poverty reduction.

• Agriculture and Inclusive Growth:

  • Only 17.5% of the poor live in urban areas, with the majority in rural areas.
  • Rural non-farm households and smallholder farmers are the largest groups among the poor.
  • Agricultural growth has a significant impact on non-farm income growth, with studies showing that a $1 increase in agricultural income leads to an additional $0.35 to $0.85 increase in non-farm income.

• Yield Gaps and Climate Change:

  • There are substantial yield gaps in major crops like wheat and rice, with national yields currently at about 55% of the maximum achievable (Progressive Farmer yields).
  • Closing these yield gaps is critical for both poverty reduction and climate adaptation. A 20% yield improvement over two decades could boost GDP by 2.6%, agricultural GDP by 11.6%, and household incomes by 3.4%.
  • Climate change is expected to reduce crop production, especially in Sindh, with potential declines of up to 36%. However, yield improvements could offset these negative impacts.

• Water Use and Management:

  • About 95% of arable land is currently irrigated, but the system is highly inefficient, with seepage losses reducing overall efficiency to 35%.
  • Improving water use efficiency, particularly in the canal system, could significantly enhance agricultural output. A 15% efficiency gain could lead to a 4.22% increase in agricultural GDP.
  • The current water allocation system, including the 1991 Provincial Water Allocation Accord, is institutionally rigid and limits market-based water distribution. Relaxing these constraints could lead to economic benefits but requires complementary policies to avoid harming poor farmers.

• Trade Policies and Market Distortions:

  • Trade policies have introduced distortions, including price controls and subsidies, which affect both domestic and international trade.
  • Domestic procurement policies, such as the government's wheat procurement, have created price distortions and fiscal burdens. These policies have also led to subsidized exports and reduced incentives for production.
  • Simplifying the trade regime, removing SROs, and adopting uniform tariffs are necessary to reduce uncertainty and volatility in agricultural markets.

Key Issues and Challenges

• Technology and Innovation: The national agricultural research system has historically been effective, but recent underinvestment and institutional inefficiencies have limited its capacity.
• Water Use Efficiency: The irrigation system is inefficient, with seepage losses and poor water allocation mechanisms.
• Policy Reforms: Current trade and market policies are creating distortions that hinder productivity and inclusiveness. Institutional reforms are needed to streamline water management and improve trade policies.

Policy Recommendations

1. Technology and Innovation:

   • Reform the national agricultural research system to make it more efficient and effective.
   • Adjust the role of PARC and NARC to focus on federal coordination and funding.
   • Increase investment in agricultural research and development, particularly in provincial centers and capacity building for scientific staff.

2. Water Use and Management:

   • Implement institutional reforms to improve water management and efficiency.
   • Clarify roles and mandates of water management authorities.
   • Provide sufficient resources and capacity building to devolved provincial authorities.

3. Trade Policies:

   • Simplify the trade regime by removing SROs and export taxes.
   • Adopt a set of uniform, low tariffs to reduce policy bias against agricultural products.
   • Design rules-based adjustable tariffs for price stability, particularly for wheat and rice.
   • Implement complementary social safety net programs to protect food insecure groups and reduce the fiscal burden of procurement policies.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the critical role of agriculture in Pakistan's inclusive growth strategy. It calls for comprehensive reforms in technology, water management, and trade policies to enhance productivity, ensure equitable distribution of benefits, and improve the resilience of the agricultural sector against climate change and market volatility.