2025-06-09-花旗集团-意大利国家电力公司（ENEI）_意大利国家电力公司（ENEL_SpA_股票代码_ENEI.MI）_电力分配特许权延期-等待政府决定_10页_297kb
报告摘要
- Regulatory Consultation: ARERA proposed using a percentage of capital cost revenues for concession fees instead of fixed fees to balance consumer impact and distributor financial capacity. Public consultation ends on June 23rd, with final decisions expected by July 31st.
- Investment Plans: Companies must submit two capital expenditure plans (2027-31 and 2029-33) after government rules are finalized.
- Capital Expenditure Growth: Distributors with a capex/depreciation ratio >1x should increase capex by 10-20%, and those below should increase by 25-35%.
- Concession Duration: At least 10 years, compared to up to 20 years under budget law.
- Valuation: Citigroup rates ENEL Neutral with a target price of €7.40. Risks include potential increases in interest rates and execution risks in asset disposals.
- Current Price and Outlook: Current price is €8.03, with an expected share price return of -7.8% and a target price of €7.40.
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