20260522-招银国际-同程旅行-00780.HK-1Q26_results_beat_higher_oil_prices_dampen_short-term_revenue_growth_outlook_6页_1mb

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Summary

Core Content

Tongcheng Travel (TC) released its 1Q26 financial results, reporting total revenue of RMB5.0bn, which is a 14.4% YoY increase and 1% above the forecast. Adjusted net profit was RMB941mn, up 19.4% YoY, and 2% above the forecast. The core OTA business performed well, contributing RMB4.5bn (88.9% of total revenue) with revenue growth of 17.3% YoY and an operating margin of 29.3%, slightly above the forecast.

Main Points

• 1Q26 Performance:

  • Total revenue: RMB5.0bn (up 14.4% YoY, 1% above forecast)
  • Adjusted net profit: RMB941mn (up 19.4% YoY, 2% above forecast)
  • Core OTA revenue: RMB4.5bn (up 17.3% YoY)
  • Core OTA operating profit: RMB1.3bn (up 17.9% YoY)
  • Core OTA operating margin: 29.3% (0.1ppt above forecast)
  • Rolling 12-month number of travellers served: 2.05bn (up 4.5% YoY)
  • Annual paying users (APU): up 2.7% YoY

• Segment Performance:

  • Transportation ticketing services (TT): RMB2.124bn (up 6.2% YoY)
  • Accommodation reservation services (AR): RMB1.364bn (up 14.7% YoY)
  • Others: RMB961mn (up 59.6% YoY)

• 2Q26E Outlook:

  • Total revenue: RMB5.0bn (up 6.8% YoY)
  • Core OTA revenue growth: 8.6% YoY
  • Tourism revenue: down 4.0% YoY
  • Core OTA operating profit growth: 6% YoY
  • Core OTA operating margin: 26.0% (down 0.7ppt YoY)
  • Non-GAAP net profit: RMB839mn (up 8% YoY)

• 2026E Outlook:

  • Core OTA revenue growth: 10.6% YoY (revised from 14.7% YoY)
  • Core OTA operating margin: 29.0% (unchanged from 2025)
  • Non-GAAP net profit: RMB3,869mn
  • DCF-derived target price: HK$25.0 (previously HK$25.5)
  • Non-GAAP P/E ratio: 14.4x

• Valuation Metrics:

  • Market Cap: HK$37,594.4m
  • 52-week high/low: HK$25.32/HK$15.68
  • Total issued shares: 2,397.6m
  • Share price performance (12 months): -59.4% (absolute), -59.4% (relative)

• Analyst Rating:

  • BUY (Maintain): Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months

Key Information

• Short-term Challenges:

  • Higher oil prices and reduced flight capacity are causing short-term growth pressure in the transportation and hotel segments.
  • Domestic long-haul travel is more price-sensitive and may be more affected than outbound travel.
  • Summer peak season may drive a recovery in long-haul travel demand.

• Cost Optimization:

  • The company is expected to continue cost optimization initiatives, supporting solid margin levels.

• Financial Highlights:

  • The company has a strong cash position, with cash and equivalents reaching RMB9,716mn in 2026E.
  • Net cash from operations is projected to be RMB4,814mn in 2026E.
  • Operating profit margin is expected to be 20.3% in 2026E, up from 18.7% in 2025.
  • Adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 18.3% in 2026E, up from 17.5% in 2025.

• Shareholding Structure:

  • TCH Sapphire Limited: 13.4%
  • C-Travel International Limited: 12.4%

• Valuation Comparison:

  • The company's DCF valuation is based on a WACC of 13.0% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%.
  • The target price is HK$25.0, with a 14.4x non-GAAP P/E ratio for 2026E.

Figures and Forecasts

• Revenue Growth (YoY):

  • 2023A: 80.7%
  • 2024A: 45.8%
  • 2025A: 11.9%
  • 2026E: 8.9%
  • 2027E: 6.2%
  • 2028E: 4.0%

• Non-GAAP Net Profit Growth (YoY):

  • 2023A: 239.3%
  • 2024A: 27.1%
  • 2025A: 22.2%
  • 2026E: 13.7%
  • 2027E: 13.2%
  • 2028E: 5.9%

• Profitability Metrics:

  • Gross margin: 67.8% (2026E), up from 66.0% (2025)
  • Operating margin: 20.3% (2026E), up from 18.7% (2025)
  • Adjusted net profit margin: 18.3% (2026E), up from 17.5% (2025)
  • Return on equity (ROE): 13.5% (2026E), up from 11.1% (2025)

• Financial Forecast Table:

Analyst Disclosures

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report.
• The analyst confirms that they and their associates have not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report's issuance and will not do so within 3 business days after issuance.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice and recommends that investors consult with a professional financial advisor.

Legal and Regulatory Information

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• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security and is not subject to U.S. rules regarding research reports and analyst independence.
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