20260401-招银国际-永达汽车-03669.HK-Recover_gradually_5页_1mb

Yongda Automobiles (3669 HK) Summary

Core Content

Yongda Automobiles is a company in the Chinese auto dealer industry, which is currently undergoing a "survival of the fittest" phase. The company has faced significant financial challenges, including a decline in new-car gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit, but the analysts maintain a BUY rating, anticipating a gradual recovery.

Main Points

Financial Performance Overview

• Revenue for FY23A was RMB74,296 million, with a 3.2% YoY growth.
• Net profit for FY23A was RMB573 million, with a 4.1% ROE.
• FY25E saw a -15.0% YoY revenue decline to RMB54,600 million, and a -64.9% YoY net profit decline to RMB-5,072 million.
• FY26E is expected to see a -9.0% YoY revenue decline to RMB49,677 million, with a 643.5% YoY net profit increase to RMB38 million.
• FY27E forecasts a -10.4% YoY revenue decline to RMB48,286 million and a 643.5% YoY net profit increase to RMB282 million.

New-Car GPM Recovery

• New-car GPM dropped to 7.0% in 2H25, the lowest since FY11.
• The company expects new-car GPM to recover from 0.1% in FY25 to 0.3% in FY26E.
• MSRP cuts by luxury OEMs like BMW and Porsche are expected to alleviate dealer pressure and support margin recovery.

Impairment and Cost Management

• Impairment losses totaled RMB1.3 billion in 2H25, following RMB3.6 billion in 1H25.
• The company booked a net loss of RMB1.7 billion in 2H25, or RMB367 million excluding impairments.
• Management states that impairment costs related to store closures were largely front-loaded in FY25, suggesting a reduction in impairments for FY26E.

Earnings and Valuation

• Net profit forecasts for FY26E and FY27E were revised downward, to RMB38 million and RMB282 million, respectively.
• Target price was cut from HK$2.50 to HK$1.80, based on a 10x FY27E P/E.
• The P/E ratio is expected to increase to 59.5x for FY26E and 8.0x for FY27E, reflecting increased earnings sensitivity to GPM recovery.
• The P/B ratio is expected to remain around 0.3x for FY26E and 0.2x for FY27E.

Key Risks

• Lower new-car margins
• More severe after-sales service declines
• Sector de-rating

Key Information

Shareholding

• Mr. Cheung Tak On holds 31.4% of the shares.
• FIL Limited holds 5.0% of the shares.

Stock Data

• Market Cap: HK$2,578.3 million
• Average 3-month turnover: HK$4.1 million
• 52-week High/Low: HK$2.78 / HK$1.33
• Total Issued Shares: 1,854.9 million

Earnings Summary

Earnings Revision

CMBIGM vs Consensus

Analyst Certification

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1. All views accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer.
2. No part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related to the specific views expressed in this report.
3. No part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related to the specific views expressed in this report.
4. The analyst has not dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue.
5. The analyst will not deal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this report 3 business days after the date of issue.
6. The analyst does not serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.
7. The analyst has no financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.

CMBIGM Ratings

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