> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Yongda Automobiles (3669 HK) Summary ## Core Content Yongda Automobiles is a company in the Chinese auto dealer industry, which is currently undergoing a "survival of the fittest" phase. The company has faced significant financial challenges, including a decline in new-car gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit, but the analysts maintain a **BUY** rating, anticipating a gradual recovery. ## Main Points ### Financial Performance Overview - **Revenue** for FY23A was RMB74,296 million, with a **3.2% YoY growth**. - **Net profit** for FY23A was RMB573 million, with a **4.1% ROE**. - **FY25E** saw a **-15.0% YoY revenue decline** to RMB54,600 million, and a **-64.9% YoY net profit decline** to RMB-5,072 million. - **FY26E** is expected to see a **-9.0% YoY revenue decline** to RMB49,677 million, with a **643.5% YoY net profit increase** to RMB38 million. - **FY27E** forecasts a **-10.4% YoY revenue decline** to RMB48,286 million and a **643.5% YoY net profit increase** to RMB282 million. ### New-Car GPM Recovery - New-car GPM dropped to **7.0%** in 2H25, the lowest since FY11. - The company expects **new-car GPM to recover** from **0.1% in FY25** to **0.3% in FY26E**. - **MSRP cuts** by luxury OEMs like BMW and Porsche are expected to alleviate dealer pressure and support margin recovery. ### Impairment and Cost Management - **Impairment losses** totaled RMB1.3 billion in 2H25, following RMB3.6 billion in 1H25. - The company booked a **net loss of RMB1.7 billion** in 2H25, or **RMB367 million excluding impairments**. - Management states that **impairment costs related to store closures** were largely front-loaded in FY25, suggesting a **reduction in impairments** for FY26E. ### Earnings and Valuation - **Net profit forecasts** for FY26E and FY27E were revised downward, to **RMB38 million** and **RMB282 million**, respectively. - **Target price** was cut from **HK$2.50 to HK$1.80**, based on a **10x FY27E P/E**. - The **P/E ratio** is expected to increase to **59.5x** for FY26E and **8.0x** for FY27E, reflecting **increased earnings sensitivity** to GPM recovery. - The **P/B ratio** is expected to remain around **0.3x** for FY26E and **0.2x** for FY27E. ### Key Risks - Lower new-car margins - More severe after-sales service declines - Sector de-rating ## Key Information ### Shareholding - **Mr. Cheung Tak On** holds **31.4%** of the shares. - **FIL Limited** holds **5.0%** of the shares. ### Stock Data - **Market Cap**: HK$2,578.3 million - **Average 3-month turnover**: HK$4.1 million - **52-week High/Low**: HK$2.78 / HK$1.33 - **Total Issued Shares**: 1,854.9 million ### Earnings Summary | Metric | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 74,296 | 63,420 | 54,600 | 49,677 | 48,286 | | YoY growth (%) | 3.2 | -14.6 | -13.9 | -9.0 | -2.8 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 572.6 | 200.8 | -5,071.5 | 38.0 | 282.2 | | YoY growth (%) | -59.4 | -64.9 | na | na | 643.5 | | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 0.29 | 0.11 | -2.72 | 0.02 | 0.15 | | P/E (x) | 4.2 | 11.7 | ns | 59.5 | 8.0 | | P/B (x) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | | Yield (%) | 12.7 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 12.5 | | ROE (%) | 4.1 | 1.4 | -45.3 | 0.4 | 3.2 | | Net gearing (%) | -4.8 | -0.8 | -10.4 | -18.0 | -19.0 | ### Earnings Revision | Metric | New (FY25A/FY26E/FY27E) | Old (FY25E/FY26E/FY27E) | Diff (%) | |--------|------------------------|------------------------|----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 54,600 / 49,677 / 48,286 | 55,497 / 53,403 / 53,898 | -1.6% / -7.0% / -10.4% | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 4,292 / 4,372 / 4,573 | 4,814 / 4,797 / 5,112 | -10.8% / -8.9% / -10.5% | | Operating profit (RMB mn) | -5,237 / 138 / 450 | -3,293 / 411 / 720 | 59.0% / -66.4% / -37.6% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | -5,072 / 38 / 282 | -3,269 / 215 / 463 | 55.1% / -82.4% / -39.1% | | Gross margin (%) | 7.9 / 8.8 / 9.5 | 8.7 / 9.0 / 9.5 | -0.8 ppts / -0.2 ppts / 0.0 ppts | | Operating margin (%) | -9.6 / 0.3 / 0.9 | -5.9 / 0.8 / 14.1 | -3.7 ppts / -0.5 ppts / -13.2 ppts | | Net margin (%) | -9.3 / 0.1 / 0.6 | -5.9 / 0.4 / 64.3 | -3.4 ppts / -0.3 ppts / -63.7 ppts | ### CMBIGM vs Consensus | Metric | CMBIGM | Consensus | Diff (%) | |--------|--------|-----------|---------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 54,600 / 49,677 / 48,286 | 57,671 / 58,399 / 59,500 | -5.3% / -14.9% / -18.8% | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 4,292 / 4,372 / 4,573 | 4,916 / 5,141 / 5,462 | -12.7% / -15.0% / -16.3% | | Operating profit (RMB mn) | -5,237 / 138 / 450 | -3,293 / 411 / 720 | -1449.2% / -72.6% / -28.2% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | -5,072 / 38 / 282 | -3,269 / 215 / 463 | 166.1% / -87.9% / -34.4% | ## Analyst Certification The research analyst certifies that: 1. All views accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer. 2. No part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related to the specific views expressed in this report. 3. No part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related to the specific views expressed in this report. 4. The analyst has not dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue. 5. The analyst will not deal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this report 3 business days after the date of issue. 6. The analyst does not serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. 7. 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