2025-06-02-ITIF-短路_半导体关税将如何损害美国经济和数字行业的领导地位（英）_24页_336kb

Short-Circuited: Semiconductor Tariffs and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy

Key Findings:

• A 25% tariff on semiconductor imports would decrease U.S. annual GDP growth by 0.18% in the first year and 0.76% by year 10, resulting in a cumulative GDP loss exceeding $1.4 trillion.
• A 10% tariff would reduce GDP by 0.06% annually, with cumulative losses of $408 billion over 10 years.
• The average household would lose $122 in living standard growth initially under a 25% tariff, compounding to $4,208 over 10 years.
• The U.S. government would net a tax revenue loss of $165 billion in the 10th year for a 25% tariff, despite collecting some tariff revenue.

Impact on Downstream Industries:

• The data center sector, critical for U.S. AI leadership, faces higher construction costs (up to 22% increase) due to semiconductor shortages, hindering competitiveness against China.
• Data center reliance on chips (60% cost component) could lead to a Y10 loss due to reduced infrastructure investment.
• Manufacturing sectors (e.g., auto, medical devices) would see product prices rise by up to $1,000 per vehicle, reducing affordability and harming innovation.

Other Key Insights:

• A 50% tariff would have even more severe impacts, leading to a cumulative GDP loss of nearly 3% by year 10.
• While the CHIPS Act aims to boost U.S. semiconductor production, tariffs would slow growth globally and allow China to dominate the market.
• Effective alternatives to achieve manufacturing revitalization exist without imposing economically-destructive tariffs.

Conclusion
A 25% semiconductor tariff risk undermining U.S. economic growth, ceding leadership in AI/data centers, and harming global competitiveness—despite its stated aims to incentivize domestic production.