> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Melbourne CBD Office Market Summary ## Core Content Overview The Melbourne CBD office market is undergoing a significant transformation, with several key trends indicating a shift toward more tenant-unfriendly conditions. The market is expected to experience increased demand, rising rents, and a near halt in new supply after 2026, leading to a tightening of the market and fewer options for tenants. ## Main Trends and Insights ### 1. **Positive Net Absorption and Rising Demand** - **Net absorption has turned positive**, indicating that more office space is being occupied than vacated. - **Demand is on an upward trend**, with most tenants no longer contracting their office footprint. - **62% of occupiers** with office space greater than 1,000 sqm have either expanded or maintained their footprint, with only 38% contracting. - **H2-2025 CBD office net absorption** reached +28,000 sqm, marking the strongest annual rate since 2018. - **Demand is driven by** tenant expansions and inward migration from non-CBD occupiers. ### 2. **Rental Growth and Price Pressure** - **Prime net effective rents** have grown at their strongest rate since 2019, with a forecast of 4.0% increase in 2025. - **Net effective rents are expected to grow at 5.3% annually** until 2030, while face rents will rise at 4.2%. - This suggests that **net effective rents have likely bottomed out** and will continue to grow, especially in quality and prime stock. ### 3. **Supply Slowdown and Vacancy Rate Forecast** - **New supply in the CBD is expected to slow significantly after 2026**, with no developments under construction thereafter. - **Current supply pipeline** includes several projects set for completion in 2026, such as 7 Spencer St, 51 Flinders Ln, and 435 Bourke St. - The **vacancy rate is forecast to peak at 20% in 2026** and then decline rapidly, reaching 14% by 2030. - **Premium vacancy rate** is expected to fall to 8.5% by 2030, with no premium developments or refurbishments planned in the next five years. ### 4. **Limited Contiguous Options for Larger Tenants** - **Suitable choices for premium office space are becoming limited**, especially for tenants requiring more than 4,000 sqm of contiguous space. - **Only 7 premium options** are available across the CBD, with the majority located in Docklands or the Western Core. - The **Eastern Core** has the fewest options, with only 2 contiguous spaces above 4,000 sqm remaining. - **Collins St** has 14 prime availabilities, but only 6 are in the central CBD. - **Bourke St** offers just 5 options in total, with 2 of them in the Eastern Core. ### 5. **Supply and Vacancy Dynamics** - The **average annual new supply** for the CBD is expected to be approximately 34,000 sqm over the next five years, with a front-loaded increase in 2026. - The **last genuine supply slowdown** occurred from 1993 to 2002, during which the market vacancy rate fell from 24.8% to 6.7%. - A **similar dynamic is anticipated** in the current cycle, with sustained downward pressure on vacancy. ## Key Information - **Prime rents** are expected to rise, with the strongest growth since 2019. - **Occupiers are advised to lease now** as options will diminish rapidly in the coming years. - The **development pipeline** is about to slow, creating a strong incentive for current lease opportunities. - **Pre-commitments** for 2026 developments are moderate, with 435 Bourke St having the highest level of pre-commitments. ## Conclusion The Melbourne CBD office market is on the cusp of a significant shift. With demand increasing, supply slowing, and rents rising, the market is becoming more challenging for tenants. Larger and more selective tenants are advised to act quickly to secure available space before it becomes even more scarce and expensive. ```