20260302-招银国际-First_full-year_profitability_driven_by_robust_BTK_sales_7页_670kb

BeOne Medicines (ONC US) Summary

Core Content

BeOne Medicines has achieved its first full-year profitability in FY25, driven by strong sales of its BTK inhibitor Zanubrutinib (Zanu). Despite a slightly lower revenue guidance for FY26, the company is expected to maintain solid earnings growth due to continued market share gains for Zanu.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue:

  • FY24A: US$3,810 million
  • FY25A: US$5,343 million (+40% YoY)
  • FY26E: US$6.2–6.4 billion (modestly below prior estimate of US$6.6 billion)
  • FY27E: US$7,249 million
  • FY28E: US$8,135 million

• Net Profit:

  • FY24A: US$-645 million
  • FY25A: US$287 million
  • FY26E: US$684 million
  • FY27E: US$1,246 million
  • FY28E: US$1,696 million

• Earnings Per Share (EPS):

  • FY25A: US$2.63
  • FY26E: US$5.78
  • FY27E: US$10.51
  • FY28E: US$14.31

• Price-to-Sales (P/S):

  • FY25A: 7.0x
  • FY26E: 5.9x
  • FY27E: 5.2x
  • FY28E: 4.6x

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E):

  • FY25A: 120.5x
  • FY26E: 54.9x
  • FY27E: 30.1x
  • FY28E: 22.1x

• Target Price: US$392.43 (unchanged)

• Current Price: US$316.99

• Up/Downside: 23.8%

Zanubrutinib Performance

• FY25 Global Sales: US$3.93 billion (+49% YoY)
• 4Q25 Sales: US$1.15 billion (+10% QoQ)
• Market Share:
  • US: ~50% of new prescriptions in both 1L and R/R CLL
  • Global: ~36% of the BTK inhibitor class
• Forecasted FY26 Sales: US$4.67 billion (+19% YoY)

Key Catalysts for FY26

• Regulatory:
  • FDA review of NDA for sonroticlax (BCL-2) in R/R MCL with PDUFA date in 1H26
  • Potential global commercialization post-approval
• Clinical:
  • Initiation of Ph3 trial for CDK4i in 1L HR+ breast cancer in 1H26
  • Presentation of Ph1 data for CDK4i at a medical conference
  • Ph1 data releases for B7-H4 ADC and GPC3 x 4-1BB bsAb in 1H26
  • B7-H4 ADC to enter Ph3 within 12 months
  • GPC3 x 4-1BB bsAb to start potential pivotal Ph2 in 2H26
• Potential US NDA submission for BTK CDAC based on Ph2 data in R/R CLL
• Initial data disclosures for PRMT5i and CEA ADC programs in 2H26

Financial Performance

• SG&A-to-sales ratio: Declined to 39.4% (vs. 48.5% in FY24)
• R&D-to-sales ratio: Moderated to 40.6% (vs. 51.7% in FY24)
• Operating Margin:
  • FY25A: 11.48%
  • FY26E: 19.57%
  • FY27E: 23.72%
• Net Margin:
  • FY25A: 10.83%
  • FY26E: 17.19%
  • FY27E: 20.85%
• ROE:
  • FY25A: 7.5%
  • FY26E: 13.8%
  • FY27E: 19.4%
  • FY28E: 20.2%

Valuation

• DCF Valuation (US$ million):
  • 2026E: 41,874
  • 2028E: 69,339
• Equity Value (US$ million):
  • 2026E: 46,509
  • 2028E: 95,210
• DCF per ADS (US$): US$392.43
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5%
• WACC: 9.64%

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Market Cap (US$ million): 37,567.7
• Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ million): 85.8
• 52w High/Low (US$): 377.47 / 206.32
• Total Issued Shares (million): 118.5

Shareholding Structure

• Amgen: 16.9%
• Baker Bros: 7.9%

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Target Price: US$392.43
• Reasoning: Despite lower revenue guidance, BeOne's profitability and strong Zanu sales support continued earnings growth and valuation upside

Risk-Adjusted DCF Valuation

• Sensitivity Analysis shows valuation is sensitive to changes in terminal growth rate and WACC, with the current valuation of US$392.43 under a 3.5% terminal growth rate and 9.64% WACC.

CMBIGM vs. Consensus

• Revenue:
  • FY26E: US$6,320 million (vs. Consensus: US$6,382 million)
• Net Profit:
  • FY26E: US$684 million (vs. Consensus: US$713 million)
• EPS:
  • FY26E: US$5.78 (vs. Consensus: US$6.90)

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect personal views and that there are no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity.

Important Disclosures

• The report is not tailored to individual investors and does not constitute investment advice.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S., and the report is intended for major U.S. institutional investors only.

Regulatory and Distribution Notes

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