20260302-招银国际-First_full-year_profitability_driven_by_robust_BTK_sales_7页_670kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # BeOne Medicines (ONC US) # First full-year profitability driven by robust BTK sales BeOne's strong commercial momentum and ongoing cost discipline continue to translate into improving profitability, notwithstanding management's FY26 revenue guidance of US$6.2-6.4bn, which is modestly below our prior estimate of US$6.6bn. We continue to see substantial upside for Zanubrutinib (Zanu) to gain market share in the global BTK market driven by new patient prescriptions. BeOne has multiple clinical and regulatory catalysts in 2026 that, if positive, could provide additional support to valuation. We maintain our BUY rating on BeOne with a target price of US\)392.43 (unchanged). ■ Strong 4Q25 momentum, led by Zanu. BeOne reported FY25 total revenue of US $5.34bn (+40% YoY), modestly above the high end of its US$ 5.1-5.3bn guidance range and broadly in line with our prior full-year forecast of US$5.44bn. Zanu delivered US$3.93bn in global FY25 sales (+49% YoY). In 4Q25, Zanu sales rose 10% QoQ to US$1.15bn, continuing to outperform ibrutinib (-4% QoQ) and acalabrutinib (+5% QoQ). Zanu remains the leader in new patient starts in the US across both 1L and R/R CLL (c. 50% share of new prescriptions) and has become the top-selling BTK inhibitor globally on a quarterly revenue basis. As of 4Q25, sales of Zanu represented approximately 36% of the global BTK inhibitor class. We expect continued share gains versus legacy BTK inhibitors and alternative regimens, and forecast Zanu sales of US$4.67bn in FY26E (+19% YoY). ■ First full-year profitability achieved in FY25. Following its first-ever quarterly GAAP profit in 1Q25, BeOne sustained its profitability trajectory through FY25, delivering its first full-year GAAP net income of US $287mn, underpinned by robust top-line growth and improved operating leverage. Operating efficiency also strengthened, with the SG&A-to-sales ratio declining to $39.4\%$ (vs. $48.5\%$ in FY24) and the R&D-to-sales ratio moderating to $40.6\%$ (vs. $51.7\%$ in FY24). Management guided FY26 revenue of US$6.2-6.4bn, modestly below our prior estimate of US$6.6bn. Nevertheless, we believe BeOne remains on track for solid earnings growth, driven by Zanu's expanding market share. Multiple near-term catalysts. We anticipate multiple near-term catalysts that, if positive, will drive BeOne's valuation upside. On the regulatory front, the NDA for sonroticlax (BCL-2) in R/R MCL is under FDA review with a PDUFA date in 1H26; approval would unlock global commercialization following its prior approval in China for R/R MCL and R/R CLL. In the breast cancer franchise, we expect the Company to initiate a Ph3 trial for its CDK4i in 1L HR+ breast cancer in 1H26, alongside the presentation of Ph1 data (1L and later-line) at a medical conference. Additionally, we look for Ph1 data releases for B7-H4 ADC and GPC3 x 4-1BB bsAb in 1H26, with the former to enter Ph3 within 12 months and the latter to start a potential pivotal Ph2 in 2H26. Finally, 2H26 catalysts include a potential US NDA submission for the BTK CDAC (based on Ph2 data in R/R CLL) and initial data disclosures for the PRMT5i and CEA ADC programs. ■ Maintain BUY. While we have slightly lowered 2026 revenue forecast to align with management's guidance, this impact is offset by the strengthened net cash position following the sale of tarlatamab royalties. We maintain TP unchanged at US$392.47 (WACC: 9.64%, terminal growth rate: 3.5%). Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (US$ mn) 3,810 5,343 6,320 7,249 8,135 Net profit (US$ mn) (644.8) 286.9 684.5 1,246.0 1,696.4 EPS (Reported) (US$) (6.12) 2.63 5.78 10.51 14.31 P/S (x) 9.9 7.0 5.9 5.2 4.6 P/E (x) ns 120.5 54.9 30.1 22.1 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$392.43 (Previous TP US$392.43) Up/Downside 23.8% Current Price US$316.99 # China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Andy WANG (852) 3657 6288 andywang@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 37,567.7 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 85.8 52w High/Low (US$) 377.47/206.32 Total Issued Shares (mn) 118.5 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Amgen 16.9% Baker Bros 7.9% Source: Bloomberg Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -5.7% -1.8% 3-mth -6.9% -5.6% 6-mth 5.6% -0.3% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Figure 1: Quarterly product sales of BeOne Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 2: Zanubrutinib quarterly sales Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 3: Tislelizumab quarterly sales Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 4: Risk-adjusted DCF valuation DCF valuation (US$ mn) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E EBIT 725 1,419 1,930 2,264 3,042 3,713 4,291 4,601 4,723 4,789 Tax rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% EBIT*(1-tax rate) 617 1,206 1,640 1,924 2,585 3,156 3,647 3,911 4,014 4,071 + D&A 146 151 151 150 146 143 139 136 133 131 - Change in working capital -35 -149 -142 10 -189 -136 -117 -40 -7 12 - Capex -200 -200 -150 -150 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 FCFF 527 1,008 1,499 1,934 2,443 3,063 3,570 3,907 4,041 4,113 Terminal value 69,339 PV of enterprise (US$ mn) 41,874 Net debt (US$ mn) -4,634 Equity value (US$ mn) 46,509 No. of ADS (mn) 119 DCF per ADS (US$) 392.43 Terminal growth rate 3.5% WACC 9.64% Cost of equity 13.0% Cost of debt 4.0% Equity beta 1.00 Risk-free rate 3.0% Market risk premium 10.0% Target debt to asset ratio 35.0% Effective corporate tax rate 15.0% Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 5: Sensitivity analysis (US$) Terminal growth rate WACC 8.64% 9.14% 9.64% 10.14% 10.64% 4.5% 549.03 488.84 440.47 400.77 367.62 4.0% 506.18 455.72 414.32 379.76 350.48 3.5% 471.66 428.48 392.43 361.91 335.75 3.0% 443.26 405.67 373.84 346.56 322.94 2.5% 419.49 386.29 357.85 333.22 311.71 Figure 6: CMBIGM estimates: New vs Old New Old Diff (%) US$ mn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 6,320 7,249 8,135 6,644 7,778 8,707 -5% -7% -7% Gross Profit 5,539 6,367 7,161 5,760 6,759 7,584 -4% -6% -6% Operating Profit 725 1,419 1,930 1,043 1,548 2,186 -30% -8% -12% Net profit 684 1,246 1,696 919 1,346 1,904 -26% -7% -11% EPS (US$) 5.78 10.51 14.31 8.30 12.16 17.21 -30% -14% -17% Gross Margin 87.64% 87.83% 88.03% 86.70% 86.90% 87.10% +0.94 ppt +0.93 ppt +0.93 ppt Operating Margin 11.48% 19.57% 23.72% 15.70% 19.90% 25.10% -4.22 ppt -0.33 ppt -1.38 ppt Net Margin 10.83% 17.19% 20.85% 13.83% 17.30% 21.87% -3.00 ppt -0.11 ppt -1.02 ppt Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Figure 7: CMBIGM estimate vs consensus CMBIGM Consensus Diff (%) US$ mn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 6,320 7,249 8,135 6,382 7,294 8,073 -1% -1% 1% Gross Profit 5,539 6,367 7,161 5,518 6,338 7,013 0% 0% 2% Operating Profit 725 1,419 1,930 847 1,307 1,619 -14% 9% 19% Net profit 684 1,246 1,696 713 1,187 1,542 -4% 5% 10% EPS (US$) 5.78 10.51 14.31 6.90 12.20 13.12 -16% -14% 9% Gross Margin 87.64% 87.83% 88.03% 86.47% 86.89% 86.87% +1.17 ppt +0.94 ppt +1.16 ppt Operating Margin 11.48% 19.57% 23.72% 13.27% 17.92% 20.05% -1.79 ppt +1.66 ppt +3.67 ppt Net Margin 10.83% 17.19% 20.85% 11.17% 16.27% 19.10% -0.34 ppt +0.92 ppt +1.75 ppt Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Revenue 2,459 3,810 5,343 6,320 7,249 8,135 Cost of goods sold (380) (594) (669) (781) (882) (974) Gross profit 2,079 3,216 4,674 5,539 6,367 7,161 Operating expenses (3,287) (3,784) (4,227) (4,813) (4,948) (5,232) SG&A expense (1,505) (1,831) (2,081) (2,438) (2,725) (2,817) R&D expense (1,779) (1,953) (2,146) (2,375) (2,223) (2,415) Others (4) 0 0 0 0 0 Other income 382 35 (30) 80 47 66 Pre-tax profit (826) (533) 417 805 1,466 1,996 Income tax (56) (112) (130) (121) (220) (299) Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit (882) (645) 287 684 1,246 1,696 Adjusted net profit (882) (645) 287 684 1,246 1,696 BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Current assets 4,203 3,992 6,234 7,202 8,763 11,015 Cash & equivalents 3,172 2,627 4,548 5,454 6,812 8,878 Account receivables 358 676 865 902 1,034 1,161 Inventories 416 495 608 634 704 764 Financial assets at FVTPL 3 0 0 0 0 0 Other current assets 255 193 213 213 213 213 Non-current assets 1,602 1,929 1,955 2,009 2,058 2,058 PP&E 1,324 1,578 1,642 1,695 1,745 1,744 Deferred income tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 Intangibles 57 51 63 63 63 63 Other non-current assets 221 300 251 251 251 251 Total assets 5,805 5,921 8,189 9,211 10,821 13,073 Current liabilities 1,810 2,215 1,829 1,856 1,909 1,954 Short-term borrowings 688 852 57 57 57 57 Account payables 315 405 479 506 559 604 Tax payable 23 26 42 42 42 42 Other current liabilities 784 932 1,251 1,251 1,251 1,251 Non-current liabilities 458 374 1,999 1,799 1,599 1,599 Long-term borrowings 198 166 962 762 562 562 Deferred income 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other non-current liabilities 260 207 186 186 186 186 Total liabilities 2,268 2,589 3,827 3,654 3,507 3,552 Share capital 11,599 12,088 12,759 13,270 13,781 14,292 Retained earnings (7,962) (8,607) (8,320) (7,635) (6,389) (4,693) Other reserves (99) (149) (78) (78) (78) (78) Total shareholders equity 3,537 3,332 4,361 5,556 7,313 9,521 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total equity and liabilities 5,805 5,921 8,188 9,211 10,821 13,073 CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Operating Profit before taxation (826) (533) 417 805 1,466 1,996 Depreciation & amortization 88 172 142 146 151 151 Tax paid (56) (112) (130) (121) (220) (299) Others (363) 332 699 475 362 369 Net cash from operations (1,157) (141) 1,128 1,306 1,758 2,216 Investing Capital expenditure (562) (493) (186) (200) (200) (150) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (17) (22) (12) 0 0 0 Net proceeds from disposal of short-term investments 673 3 3 0 0 0 Others (34) (36) (82) 0 0 0 Net cash from investing 60 (548) (276) (200) (200) (150) Financing Net borrowings 684 877 1,084 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 0 0 907 0 0 0 Others (268) (684) (932) (200) (200) 0 Net cash from financing 416 193 1,059 (200) (200) 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 3,875 3,186 2,639 4,548 5,454 6,812 Exchange difference (8) (52) 60 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 3,186 2,639 4,610 5,454 6,812 8,878 GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Revenue 73.7% 55.0% 40.2% 18.3% 14.7% 12.2% Gross profit 84.1% 54.7% 45.3% 18.5% 15.0% 12.5% Net profit na na na 138.5% 82.0% 36.1% Adj. net profit na na na 138.5% 82.0% 36.1% PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 84.5% 84.4% 87.5% 87.6% 87.8% 88.0% Adj. net profit margin (35.9%) (16.9%) 5.4% 10.8% 17.2% 20.9% Return on equity (ROE) (22.3%) (18.8%) 7.5% 13.8% 19.4% 20.2% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) (0.7) (0.5) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) Current ratio (x) 2.3 1.8 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.6 Receivable turnover days 39.4 49.5 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 Inventory turnover days 335.5 279.9 301.2 296.2 291.2 286.2 Payable turnover days 293.0 221.2 241.3 236.3 231.3 226.3 VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec P/E ns ns 120.5 54.9 30.1 22.1 P/E (diluted) ns ns 125.3 54.9 30.1 22.1 P/B 121.6 130.2 103.1 87.9 66.8 51.3 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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