英文_OECD_管理新出现的关键风险_案例研究和跨国综合报告_109页_3mb

Managing Emerging Critical Risks: Summary

Across OECD countries, emerging critical risks—transboundary, highly uncertain, systemic threats such as extreme natural hazards, disruptive technologies, geopolitical shocks, and health threats—are increasing in frequency and complexity. These challenges require anticipatory, adaptive, and coordinated governance strategies to safeguard national security and economic resilience.

This report analyzes national approaches through a seven-step OECD Framework: early risk identification, assessment and information sharing, management maturity evaluation, recommendation development, exercising, flexible planning, and implementation. A maturity model (Nascent to Pioneering) assesses progress in each step, highlighting Effective practices include institutional roles (e.g., Israel's NEMA), technological use (e.g., Korea's CRIA), and structured exercises (e.g., US DHS). Challenges arise from decentralized structures, fragmented co-coOrdination, and insufficient integration of foresight methodologies.

Key recommendations include embedding maturity models into national systems, institutionalizing horizon scanning, enhancing information sharing, conducting scenario-based exercises, and strengthening legal frameworks. Greater international collaboration is essential for mutual learning.

The analysis reveals significant variation in readiness across steps and countries, with each nation advancing differently. For instance:

• Ireland shows strength in identification but gaps in strategic planning and exercises.
• Israel demonstrates leadership in early detection and multi-source collaboration.
• Korea has robust processes for risk classification and data-driven identification.
• United States shows progress but faces challenges in decentralized prioritization and implementation.

Overall, countries need to improve cross-country co-operation, standardize assessments, and leverage technology to handle deeply uncertain risks. The OECD High-Level Risk Forum can drive further refinement of the Framework, fostering global resilience.