> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Core Content Overview This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMBI, focusing on bond performance, exchange offers, credit ratings, and macroeconomic news affecting the market. It also includes comments from desk analysts and important disclosures regarding the report's use and limitations. --- ## Market Update - **Yankee and JP AT1s and insurance subs**: Lost 1.0-1.5 points. - **GLPSP Perps**: Leaked 1.4-1.6 points. - **Asian IG space**: Overall widened 2-5 basis points. - **HONGQI 28s**: Unchanged this morning. - **EHICARs**: Unchanged, but an exchange offer and exit consent for EHICAR 7 09/21/26 was launched. - **Yankee AT1s**: Bounced back by up to 0.6 points at Asia open but retraced 0.1-0.3 points. - **JP space**: RESLIF 6.875 Perp leaked 0.2 points. - **Middle East**: ARAMCO 30-31s and 35-56s lost 0.5-0.6 and 1.0-1.3 points respectively. - **LNGFOR 27-32**: Down by 0.2-0.8 points. - **LGFVs**: Slightly firmer due to better buying from RMs. --- ## Key Bond Performance ### Top Performers | Security | Price | Change | |----------|------|--------| | GLPCHI 7 3/4 04/30/29 | 77.6 | +4.8 | | GLPSP 9 3/4 05/20/28 | 80.2 | +4.7 | | GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP | 49.7 | +3.9 | | GLPSP 4.6 PERP | 45.9 | +3.1 | | TSINGH 6 1/2 01/31/28 | 87.9 | +1.2 | ### Top Underperformers | Security | Price | Change | |----------|------|--------| | NWDEVVL 5 1/4 PERP | 78.9 | -3.5 | | SUMIBK 6.184 07/13/43 | 104.5 | -2.0 | | SUMIBK 5.796 07/08/46 | 96.3 | -1.8 | | TACHEM 5.65 07/05/44 | 97.2 | -1.8 | | BHP 5 3/4 09/05/55 | 99.3 | -1.8 | --- ## EHICAR Exchange Offer Details - **Exchange Offer**: Launched for EHICAR 7 09/21/26. - **Upfront payment**: 10 points. - **Exchange and consent fee**: 0.2 points. - **New bonds**: Remaining 90 points will be exchanged into a 3.5-year bond due on 14-Oct-29 with a coupon rate of 10%. - **Amortization schedule**: - 14-Dec-26: 7.5% - 14-Jun-27: 2.0% - 14-Dec-27: 5.0% - 14-Jun-28: 5.0% - 14-Dec-28: 5.0% - 14-Jun-29: 5.0% - 14-Oct-29: 70.5% - **Minimum acceptance threshold**: - Exchange: 85% of outstanding principal (USD266.03mn) - Consent: 50% of outstanding principal - **New bond covenant**: High yield covenant package, including FCCR of 2.5x. - **Valuation view**: Current valuations have priced in too much downside for a non-distressed credit. **Buy recommendation** is maintained. --- ## HONGQI Credit Analysis - **Revenue**: RMB162.4bn in FY25, up 4.0% yoy. - **Gross Profit**: RMB41.5bn, down 1.6% yoy. - **EBIT**: RMB35.3bn, up 4.9% yoy. - **Cash and cash equivalents**: RMB51.2bn as of Dec'25, up 14.3% yoy. - **Net debt**: RMB24.3bn, down 16.8% yoy. - **Debt structure improvements**: - Total debt/EBITDA: 1.8x (up slightly) - Net debt/EBITDA: 0.6x (improved) - LT debt: 62% of total debt (up from 39%) - **Funding cost**: Average declined by 4bps to c4.3%. - **Valuation view**: Maintain **neutral** stance on HONGQIs due to strong cash flow generation. --- ## Bond Profile of HONGQIs | Security Name | ISIN | Amt o/s (USD mn) | Ask px | YTM | Z-spread (bps) | Issue rating (M/S/F) | |---------------|------|------------------|--------|-----|----------------|----------------------| | HONGQI 7.05 01/10/28 | XS2968971676 | 330 | 103.1 | 5.2% | 142 | -/-/BB+ | | HONGQI 6.925 11/29/28 | XS3084116055 | 270 | 104.2 | 5.2% | 150 | - / BB- / BB+ | --- ## Offshore Asia New Issues ### Priced | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating | |------------------|--------------|-------|--------|--------|--------------| | Qingdao Pingdu Holdings | 200 | 3yr | 6.5% | 6.5% | Unrated | ### Pipeline - No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today. --- ## News and Market Color - **Onshore primary issuances**: 100 credit bonds issued last Friday with RMB83bn raised. Month-to-date total: RMB1,298bn, up 14.1% yoy. - **Trump**: Gave Iran 48-hour ultimatum over Strait of Hormuz. - **Health & Happiness**: Invited investors to a France site visit in May'26. - **Fosun**: Secured USD500mn refinancing loan in multi-currency despite FY25 loss warning. - **Lai Sun Development**: Warned of HKD1.1-1.2bn loss in 1HFY25, partly due to asset sale and fair value losses. - **LG Electronics**: Fitch withdrew BBB ratings for commercial reasons. - **Regal REIT**: Agreed to dispose subsidiaries owning Regal Oriental Hotel for HKD1.52bn. - **Rio Tinto**: Suspended bauxite mine operations due to tropical cyclone. - **Halcyon Agri**: Appealed SGX's rejection of FY25 results extension. - **Sinopec**: FY25 operating revenue down 9.5% yoy to RMB2.8tn. - **Sumitomo Life Insurance**: Plans to invest JPY300bn (cUSD1.9bn) in private credit. - **Vedanta**: Filed appeal against NCLT's approval of Adani's resolution plan. - **Vanke**: Extended RMB1.65bn Industrial Bank loan by one year. - **Zhuhai Wanda**: Dividend-payment loan drawn down. - **Zhong An Group**: Expected to report a loss of no more than RMB940mn for FY25, down from RMB218mn in FY24. --- ## Important Disclosures - **Conflicts of interest**: CMBI may have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report. - **Author certification**: The author certifies that all views reflect personal opinions and that no compensation is directly related to the views expressed. - **Trading restrictions**: The author and associates did not trade in the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report's issue and will not trade within 3 business days after. - **Use of report**: Intended solely for CMBI clients and not for public distribution. - **Disclaimer**: The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Investors should consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. --- ## Author Information - **Glenn Ko, CFA**: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk - **Cyrena Ng, CPA**: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk - **Yujing Zhang**: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk --- ## Contact Information - **Fixed Income Department**: Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801 | fis@cmbi.com.hk --- ## Legal Disclaimer - **United Kingdom**: The report is only provided to persons within specific categories under the Financial Promotion Order. - **United States**: CMBI is not a registered broker-dealer in the US. The report is for major US institutional investors only. - **Singapore**: CMBISG is an exempt financial adviser regulated by MAS. The report may be distributed to Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors only.