2012年-世界发展银行全球_CGE_Modeling_of_Market_Access_in_Services_49页_2mb

CGE Modeling of Market Access in Services Summary

Core Content

This paper explores the integration of market access in services into the multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework. It highlights the challenges and progress in modeling services trade, particularly in relation to trade barriers, data availability, and the complexity of services as non-tangible and heterogeneous economic activities.

Main Points

• Importance of Services in Trade: Services are a significant component of global trade, though often underrepresented in economic models. The global value of cross-border services exports in 2007 was $3 trillion, or about 20% of total world trade. When considering indirect trade (e.g., services embedded in goods), the share rises to nearly 50%.

• Definition of Services Trade: The WTO defines services trade through four "modes of supply":

  • Mode 1: Cross-border supply (e.g., call center services from India to Canada).
  • Mode 2: Consumption abroad (e.g., international tourism).
  • Mode 3: Commercial presence (e.g., a foreign firm establishing a branch in another country).
  • Mode 4: Presence of natural persons (e.g., a consultant from the UK working in Russia).

• Challenges in Modeling Services Trade:

  • Identification of Trade Mechanisms: Services trade is more complex than goods trade due to its intangible and heterogeneous nature.
  • Data Robustness: Services data are often incomplete, inconsistent, or not directly comparable across countries and sectors.
  • Quantification of Barriers: Unlike goods, where barriers can be easily converted to tariff equivalents, services barriers are often qualitative and harder to quantify.

• Progress in Modeling: There has been significant progress in incorporating foreign direct investment (FDI) and productivity into CGE models, which are critical for understanding the impacts of liberalization and regulation.

• Empirical Example: The paper provides an applied CGE model of Italy, showing how services contribute to the value added of other sectors. It demonstrates the interplay between domestic regulation and market access in shaping service sector outcomes.

• Future Research Priorities:

  • Better modeling of market structure.
  • Understanding sectoral linkages and complementarities between different service supply modes.
  • Incorporating more detailed and accurate FDI and services trade data.

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • OECD, Eurostat, and UN provide bilateral services trade data.
  • The GTAP project has been instrumental in reconciling and expanding these data for global modeling.
  • FDI data are often limited and confidential, making them difficult to use directly in CGE models.

• Modeling Techniques:

  • The Leontief inverse matrix is used to trace value added flows across sectors.
  • The matrix $\mathbf{V}$ captures the value added content of exports, both direct and indirect.
  • $\mathbf{G}$ and $\mathbf{H}$ matrices are used to break down the value added content of final demand and exports, respectively.

• Italy Example:

  • Market Services: Account for 41.76% of total value added in Italy in 2007.
  • Export Value Added: Services account for 23.9% of total export value added, with 5.2% coming from direct services exports and the rest from indirect linkages.
  • Machinery and Manufacturing: The machinery sector is heavily influenced by market services, with 28.3% of value added in exports attributed to this sector.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the need for more sophisticated modeling approaches that capture the complexities of services trade, including the interdependencies between sectors and the various modes of supply. It also underscores the importance of robust and consistent data for accurate CGE analysis and the potential for future research to enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of services liberalization and regulation.