2022-10-27-IMF-Digitalization_and_Resilience_52页_1mb

Digitalization and Resilience: Firm-Level Effects on Economic Resilience During Recessions

This IMF Working Paper investigates the role of digitalization in enhancing firms' resilience to economic recessions. Using a difference-in-differences approach with firm-level data from 75 countries (24,000 firms, 2001Q1-2021Q4), the study finds that firms in more digitalized industries experience lower revenue losses following recessions. Specifically, four years after a recession, firms with one standard deviation higher digitalization than the mean have approximately 2% lower revenue losses compared to average firms.

The findings are robust across multiple digitalization measures (e.g., ICT inputs, robot usage, online sales, intangibles shares, LinkedIn skills). The effect was particularly pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, with firms in high-digitization industries experiencing about 4% less sales declines one year after a pandemic recession. This highlights the importance of digital technologies in enabling remote work and contactless transactions, mitigating scarring during lockdowns.

The study confirms that digitalization serves as an economic shock buffer, irrespective of country income levels or sector types. Results also hold under various alternative specifications, recession definitions, and sub-samples, ensuring their generalizability. Beyond long-term growth, digitalization contributes to medium-term resilience during downturns. The findings support policy efforts to promote digital technology adoption.