> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观经济深度研究 # 全球生产网络与绕不开的中国 ——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之三 在全球生产网络中，中国正从参与既有分工的贸易节点，转变为牵动价值流向的中枢型力量。这一转变由三重结构性动能共同推动：一是长期积累的规模化供给能力推高了中国在全球产出中的权重；二是产业升级推动价值获取能力上移，使中国逐步减轻对低端环节的依赖；三是本文重点关注的，更广泛、更深入的跨国产业连接重塑了中国在全球价值链中的位置。传统价值链分析强调沿工序展开的纵向分工，而随着生产组织方式的变化，价值流动越来越呈现多节点协同、跨区域重组的横向特征。因此，本文从网络视角分析，中国已经成为连接最密集的价值输出枢纽，并与美国共同构成驱动全球价值循环的双核心。但二者的作用方式并不相同，美国的影响更多体现在与核心经济体形成长期而稳定的黏性联系，中国的影 响主要来自为大量经济体提供难以绕开的生产投入。正是这种路径上绕不开、关系上未完全锁定的并存状态，使路径依赖在形成结构性优势的同时，也放大了潜在的系统性风险。如何在巩固中枢地位的同时降低风险，关键在于海外生产节点的分散布局、与新兴节点的深度协同以及更高水平的经贸合作，将结构性依赖转化为更稳固的价值锚定。 广结善缘：中国作为全球供给中心的结构角色。在图论与复杂网络分析中，度中心度（Degree Centrality）用于衡量一个节点与其他节点之间连接的数量与强度，反映其在价值流转中的重要性。由此观察全球增加值贸易网络，可以发现中国已成为连接最为密集的出口节点，稳居全球出口中心度的首位。这意味着中国出口创造的增加值正通过高密集的网络路径，广泛嵌入全球各地的生产函数。与之相对，美国在进口中心度上保持全球第一，扮演着增加值“最终结算者”的角色。这种高度合乎“中国生产、美国消费”模式的价值分布，量化了中国作为全球生产体系价值循环泵的深层职能。与此同时，随着国内需求扩张与产业结构升级，中国的进口中心度亦呈现稳步抬升态势，目前仅次于美国，使其在输出价值的同时，也逐步成为全球增加值的重要承接者。 图1：中国在全球生产分工网络中确立枢纽地位 2000年 2017年 2024年 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 当视角进一步下沉至行业层面，这种错位分工表现得更加直观。多数制造业中，中国的出口度中心度与美国的进口度中心度呈现出高度一致的变化方向，显示出近乎镜像的结构特征。在纺织皮革、橡胶塑料、电气光学设备、非金属矿物等行业，中国在出口端显著领先，其增加值输出在网络中占据关键节点位 1 图中筛选了全球范围内制造业出口实力较强的 31 个国家（具有国内增加值排名全球前十的制造业行业），节点大小代表该国对全球出口中，被直接吸收的国内增加值之和。曲线代表按顺时针方向的上游节点出口至下游节点，曲线粗细代表被下游直接吸收的国内增加值。 2026年2月2日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 尹学钰，博士 (852) 2683 3864 sherry.yin@icbci.com # 相关研究： 1/30/2026：《分位数视角下的美元指数走势》 1/29/2026：《独立性承压下的货币政策路径——2026年1月美联储议息会议点评》 1/26/2026：《以历史主动精神应对混沌演化——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二》 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026：《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 置。美国在这些领域依赖外部供给，表现为进口中心性较高。相比之下，美国出口中心度与中国进口中心度之间的相关性明显偏弱，反映出中国的进口结构更具分散性与全球化特征。具体来看，美国主要在精炼燃料、化工等行业依托页岩气革命形成的成本优势，占据供给侧较为突出的中心位置；在交通运输设备、食品饮料等行业，则凭借技术壁垒与品牌优势维持出口中心性。至于公用事业、建筑业等高度依赖本地需求的行业，由于跨境价值流动有限，中美均未形成明显的全球中心地位，反而是德国、荷兰等欧洲经济体，依托区域市场的高度一体化，在横向价值链中呈现出更强的连接能力。 图2：中国和美国的进出口中心度排名呈镜像分布 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 扼据要冲：中国是难以替代的“超级路由器”。如果说进出口中心度衡量了连接的广度，那么介数中心度（Betweenness Centrality）则量化了节点在贸易流转中的结构性权力。假设全球贸易沿最短路径运行，介数中心度衡量了必须经过某一节点的路径数量。为便于理解，本文称之为结构依存度，该指标越高，其他经济体试图绕开该节点所需付出的贸易成本越高。测算结果显示，中国的结构依存度同样位居全球首位。这表明，中国不仅是连接最广的节点，更是效率最高、最难被替代的中枢枢纽，在全球生产网络中扮演着“超级路由器”的角色。美国则由于更多分布在价值链的两端，中间品中转功能相对弱化，对贸易路径的控制力相对有限，这为其近年来高度重视制造业回流提供了一个网络结构层面的解释。 图3：主要制造国家的结构依存度 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 从行业层面看，结构依存度的分布清晰揭示了中国对全球供应链中游环节的实质性掌控。在制造业的14个细分行业中，中国在绝大多数行业的结构依存度都高居全球榜首，尤以纺织、皮革、金属及电气光学设备等行业最为突出。即便在化工、精炼燃料等美国是主要出口中心的行业，中国在结构方面仍占据路径优势。这种规模与路径的错位说明，美国输出的增加值往往需要通过中国这一枢纽进行转化或集散，方能触达全球终端。在电气设备、机械制造等高复杂度行业，中国极高的结构依存度一定程度上回应了产能转移的争议。印度等新兴经济体虽然在出口规模上有所提升，但在网络路径掌控力上仍与中国存在数量级差距，更多是扮演分支节点的角色。在这一意义上，相较于其他中心度指标主要反映横向连接程度，结构依存度更能体现一个经济体对纵向价值链关键环节的把控能力。 趋利避害：中国作为全能型中枢的持续进化。如果说结构依存度关注谁在掌握必经之路，那么特征向量中心度（Eigenvector Centrality）体现谁在与强者共舞。一个经济体的主要贸易伙伴地位越高，其特征向量中心度得分越高。为便于理解，本文称之为核心关联度。中国不仅在贸易总量和路径上占据优势，更在性质上实现了与核心经济体的深度连接。这种圈层嵌入的独特意义在于，即便全球供应链发生物理转移，即部分中转地位被取代的情况下，中国依然可以通过与核心节点的强耦合关系，保持在技术规范和价值分配中的地位相对稳固。相比之下，越南等新兴节点虽然表现出较快的规模增长，但较低的核心关联度表明其承接流量多于共享声望，尚未真正打入全球贸易的战略核心。美国虽然在出口规模和中枢地位上不及中国，但是连接的贸易伙伴质量更高，深度绑定具有较高贸易地位的发达经济体，占据着全球价值分配的“高端俱乐部”。 图4：主要国家在全球生产网络中的结构角色分布 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 将结构依存度与核心关联度结合，可以更清晰地区分主要经济体在全球生产网络中的角色类型。首先，中国与美国是唯二的全能型中枢节点，且呈现出深度嵌套的结构特征。中国拥有全球最高的结构依存度和位居前列的核心关联度，既是难以替代的“超级路由器”，也是与核心经济体高度融合的生产中枢。美国虽然在路径控制力上不及中国，但凭借全球最高的核心关联度，依然占据核心价值圈层。因此，即便在当前复杂多变的贸易环境下，两国仍是彼此交织最深、相互牵制最强的系统锚点。其次，德国、日本等发达国家以及印度、俄罗斯等大型发展中国家，构成全球生产网络中的关键连接节点。这些国家依托核心技术、资源禀赋或专业制造优势嵌入主干链条，形成有限但稳定的结构性影响力。最后，加拿大、韩国等部分发达国家，以及以越南、墨西哥为代表的发展中国家，则更多属于边缘参与节点。它们在特定价值链中具备一定的核心关联度，但结构依存度有限，整体话语权仍高度依赖核心中枢的稳定运作。 从更长周期看，中心度在塑造结构性优势的同时，也不可避免地生成新的外部约束。高效节点虽在贸易路径中难以替代，却也更易成为潜在的系统摩擦点。一旦遭遇关税、制裁等去中心化冲击，扰动可能沿着高度集中的路径被迅速放大，尤其是在电气光学及机械设备等领域，容易演化为针对特定产业的制度性约束。应对之道并不在于削弱自身的网络地位，而在于主动调整出口所依托的网络形态。一方面，通过在海外培育区域性生产节点，使价值流动中枢实现多点分布，有助于提升整体韧性，降低单一路径的暴露度。另一方面，发挥“超级路由器”的组织能力，引导越南等新兴节点嵌入以中国为核心的区域生产网络，在关键中间品与技术标准上形成深度协同，将潜在的横向竞争转化为可控的结构分工。进一步看，在深化与发展中国家协作的基础上，可以同步加强与欧洲国家等高价值经济体的制度性合作，通过更高水平的经贸安排，将既有的中心结构优势沉淀为不随路径变化而动摇的价值与规则。 # 参考文献 洪俊杰,商辉.中国开放型经济的“共轭环流论”:理论与证据[J].中国社会科学,2019,(01):42-64+205. 孙浦阳.技术标准引领与中国贸易新优势构建[J].中国社会科学,2025,(02):41-62+205. Amador, J., & Cabral, S. (2017). Networks of value-added trade. The World Economy, 40(7), 1291-1313. # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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