2025-06-11-花旗集团-星巴克公司（SBUX）_星巴克公司（SBUX.O）_更多迹象表明在业务好转过程中销售优先于利润_14页_686kb

Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) Research Summary

Key Narrative: Citigroup expects Starbucks' turnaround to emphasize sales growth before profitability, with long-term profitability unclear. Short-term upside is driven by increased staffing ("Green Apron Service Model"), raising the 12-month target price to US$95 (from US$84), justified by higher estimated EBITDA and 1-year traffic recovery.

Short-Term View & Rationale

• Upside Catalyst: Accelerated labor investment (implementation by summer) outweighs near-term margins cost.
• Traffic Recovery: Improved traffic trends, anticipated positive commentary from earlier F3Q stores, driving share price potential rise.
• Target Price Adjustment: Reflects 18x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs prior 1.1x market multiple); in line with 5-year average multiple.

Target Price & Valuation

• Target Price: US$95 (Up from US$84).
• Forward EPS: 2025E FY: US$3.31; 2026E FY: US$2.93; 2027E FY: US$3.54.
• Dividend Yield: 2.8%.
• Expected Total Return: 6.7%.

Investment Strategy & Risks

• Rating: Neutral (Hold).
• Bull Factors: Employee scheduling plans, enhanced customer experience, positive traffic trends.
• Bear Factors: Confirmation of new investment cycle, recession risks in US, deceleration in China.

Catalysts & Near-Term Events

• Quarter 3 guidance: Positive commentary expected from traffic/lift in earlier stores.
• Quarter-by-quarter: Short-term upside driven by investor reactions to new stores, carrying forward positive momentum.

Forward Financials (Projected)

Fiscal Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3 (Est.)	Quarter 4 (Est.)
2025	0.69	0.41	0.56	0.68
2026	0.80	0.53	0.66	0.77
2027	0.90	0.62	0.77	0.95

Disclaimer

Citi Research acknowledges potential conflicts of interest given their business relationships with the company. This analysis does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell stock.