2011年-ECB欧洲央行_The_current_euro_area_recovery_across_expenditure_components_from_a_historical_perspective_3页_186kb

Box 7: The Current Euro Area Recovery Across Expenditure Components from a Historical Perspective

Core Content

The euro area has experienced a moderate recovery since the second quarter of 2009, with GDP growth picking up but not fully compensating for the output loss during the preceding downturn. This recovery is compared with three previous euro area recessions since 1970, highlighting both similarities and differences in the dynamics of expenditure components.

Main Views

• GDP Recovery Pattern: The recovery since 2009 has been weaker than previous ones, with GDP growth five quarters after the trough being among the weakest in the series. This is consistent with the general experience of economies after severe financial crises.
• Inventories as a Key Driver: A notable feature of the current recovery is the significant contribution from inventory changes, which occurred immediately after the trough and were of considerable magnitude. This is in contrast to previous recoveries, where inventory contributions started later and were less pronounced.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption has contributed less to growth compared to previous recoveries, despite the more severe downturn. This is due to flat real income growth and increased precautionary savings, which are linked to uncertainty about future income prospects.
• Public Consumption: Public consumption has played a more significant role in this recovery than in previous ones, although it remains a secondary contributor compared to inventory changes.
• Investment: Total investment has made a limited contribution to growth, primarily due to firms' spare capacity, high uncertainty, low confidence, and restricted financing conditions. However, there are signs of a potential revival in investment as the recovery progresses.
• Trade: Trade variables have shown more marked changes in this cycle, with both imports and exports rebounding sharply following the global financial crisis. However, the net trade contribution to GDP growth has been close to zero, similar to previous experiences.

Key Information

• Chart A: Compares GDP developments around the troughs of four recessions (Q2 2009, Q1 1993, Q3 1982, Q1 1975). The recent recession was sharper and deeper than previous ones, but the recovery was weaker.
• Chart B: Shows the breakdown of cumulative GDP growth from peak to trough and five quarters after the trough. The current recovery is characterized by a strong contribution from inventories and a weaker one from private consumption.
• Chart C: Indicates that as the recovery strengthens, there is a greater reliance on domestic demand drivers. This suggests that the euro area recovery may align more with historical patterns in the longer term.

Summary of Recovery Dynamics

Outlook

• The euro area recovery is expected to continue gradually.
• As the recovery gains momentum, there will likely be a shift towards greater reliance on domestic demand, similar to past recoveries.
• The global economic recovery is anticipated to support export demand, while domestic consumption and investment are expected to accelerate.