2025-05-22-Jefferies-多伦多道明银行（TD）_多伦多道明银行2025年第二季度初步观察（中性）季度内有一些拉锯但最终表现稳健_8页_112kb

TD Bank 2Q25 Earnings Summary (Jefferies Equity Research)

Rating and Price Target:

• Equity Research rating: Buy.
• Current price: C$89.90.
• Price target: C$95.00 (up 6%).
• 52-week range: C$90.72 - C$73.22.

Earnings Performance:

• Adjusted EPS: C$1.97 (above consensus $1.75 and estimate $1.59).
• Headline earnings per share: C$6.27, including a gain from the sale of its Schwab stake ($4.92 per share).
• Core earnings exceeded expectations primarily due to higher contributions from insurance and improved capital ratios resulting from the Schwab sale, which boosted CET1 ratio by 180bps to 14.9%. However, the beat was partly attributed to lower-than-forecast provisions, raising questions about the sustainability of earnings quality, as the market may not view the allowance build as sufficient.

Segment Highlights:

• Domestic Retail: Net interest margins increased by 1bps, but earnings declined due to lower revenues and negative operating leverage, with provisions offsetting some gains.
• Non-Domestic Retail: Margins improved by 14bps, but core earnings fell due to declining Schwab contribution post-sale.
• Wealth Management: Earnings improved sequentially, driven by strong insurance contributions and lower expenses, but traditional wealth management saw declines.
• Capital Markets: Contribute declined due to higher provisions and lower activity.

Valuation and Risks:

• Base case price target C$95 based on 13.5x forward P/E for FY25E EPS of C$7.05.
• Key risks: Potential US asset cap limitations, new CEO strategy uncertainty, and macroeconomic slowdown impacting credit and revenues.
• On-balance, valuation may see some support due to ongoing positive trends and management outlook, but push-pull dynamics could affect sentiment.