2021-08-03-牛津经济研究院-UK_A_strong_recovery_across_all_regions,_but_worries_remain_11页_541kb

UK Regional Economic Outlook Summary (July 2021)

Key Findings for 2021

• Recovery: The UK regions are experiencing a strong recovery in Gross Value Added (GVA) after sharp declines in 2020.
• GVA Growth 2021: London (7.1%) and the South East/South West (6.9%) have above-average recovery. The East Midlands (8.2%), West Midlands (8.1%), North East (8.1%), and Northern Ireland (8.0%) are forecast for the strongest GVA increases.
• Employment: Despite overall GVA growth, employment is set to decline moderately across all regions due to factors like furlough scheme winding down and varying employer responses to demand. There is a lack of a strong "north-south" pattern.
• Incomes & Spending: Household disposable incomes and consumer spending are projected to rise significantly in 2021 (average 4.0%), with London showing the largest increase (5.2%). This supports growing consumer confidence. The running down of COVID-era savings is noted.
• House Prices: House prices saw a significant global rise in 2021, with London posting the lowest rise among major metropolitan areas. This contrasts with the economic fundamentals analysis, suggesting current price increases (up to 9%) may not be widely sustainable.
• Medium-Term (2020-2025): London's large service economy gives it an edge, leading its GVA growth (1.7%), but the gap with slower-growing regions like the West Midlands (0.9%) is historically small. Differences in economic fundamentals, while still real, are less pronounced.
• Regional Differences: Key factors contributing to slower recovery in some regions are the manufacturing sector decline in 2020 (particularly affecting East Midlands/East of England), disruptions from Brexit, and the West Midlands' low qualification levels (38.6% degree holders vs. UK average 47.7%). House prices in London have become more representative of national trends due to mathematical factors and converging economic structures to some extent.
• Challenges & Uncertainties: Recovery depends on COVID trajectory, business/consumer confidence, supply chain issues, Brexit impacts, potential rate cuts by the MPC due to inflation risks, and public spending. House price booms could pose risks later. Long-term inequality is highlighted more than geographical location.

This report highlights a strong but uneven post-pandemic economic recovery across the UK regions, with London maintaining strength while the basis for this strength narrows. Uncertainties regarding the pandemic's future course and global economic conditions temper forecasts.