> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** February 11, 2026 # Morning Insight: February 11, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: Naphtha: Near-term Asian naphtha premiums have continued to rise, with the premium of heavy naphtha over light naphtha reaching a year-on-year high, triggering market concerns over refining and reforming margins in Asia. On the supply side, reduced East-West arbitrage flows appear to be the main driver of this round of naphtha premium increases. On the one hand, the United States' processing of Venezuelan heavy crude has resulted in large volumes of heavy naphtha remaining within South America, with exports to Europe and Asia dropping sharply. On the other hand, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have pushed tanker freight rates higher, and current East-West price spreads are insufficient to cover arbitrage costs. In addition, seasonal maintenance in the Middle East during winter has increased, leading to reduced exports in February and providing a seasonal boost. On the demand side, since January, rising prices of downstream ethylene derivatives and aromatics in Asia have lifted profitability, prompting Asian refineries and reforming units to operate at high rates, while cracker maintenance has been significantly less than expected. The strengthening of rigid demand driven by margin recovery has allowed price momentum stemming from supply-side tightness to be smoothly transmitted. Looking ahead, we believe the issues on the U.S. side are likely to become more structural and long-term, while other supply-side constraints are more likely to adjust dynamically. Price normalization could encourage some of this supply to return, while further squeezing downstream margins and easing naphtha tightness, although a clear short-term inflection point in supply and demand remains difficult to identify. Chart 1: Market Snapshot <table><tr><td colspan="3">Market Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300 Index Futures</td><td>4722.6</td><td>0.20%</td></tr><tr><td>SSE 50 Index Futures</td><td>3083.6</td><td>0.40%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 500 Index Futures</td><td>8322.0</td><td>-0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 1000 Index Futures</td><td>8256.0</td><td>0.14%</td></tr><tr><td>30Y T-bond Futures</td><td>112.7</td><td>0.01%</td></tr><tr><td>10Y T-bond Futures</td><td>108.5</td><td>0.01%</td></tr><tr><td>5Y T-bond Futures</td><td>106.0</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>2Y T-bond Futures</td><td>102.5</td><td>0.00%</td></tr></table> Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. China's central bank on Tuesday said it will continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, pledging to support stable economic growth and guide prices toward a reasonable recovery. In its report of the monetary policy implementation in the fourth quarter of 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it will calibrate the strength, pace and timing of policy measures in response to evolving domestic and global economic and financial conditions, as well as market developments. Last year, the PBOC rolled out a package of monetary and financial measures, stepping up countercyclical adjustment to bolster the real economy and ensure the stable operation of financial markets, according to the report. It said that overall financial aggregates expanded at a relatively fast pace in 2025, and the credit structure continued to improve. Lending in priority areas such as technology, green development, inclusive finance, elderly care and the digital economy grew at a faster pace than total loan growth. Looking ahead, the central bank said it will strengthen financial support for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. It also pledged further improvements to its macroprudential and financial stability policy toolkit, in conjunction with efforts to guard against systemic financial risks. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's 10 top provincial regions by gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for 62.2 percent of the country's overall economic growth in 2025, according to recent data released by all such regions. The 10 top-performing regions, including Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, helped boost the national growth rate by 3.1 percentage points, the data shows. Their combined GDP totaled approximately 85.5 trillion yuan (about 12.3 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2025. (Source: Xinhua) 3. Multiple Chinese authorities have jointly issued guidelines to bolster the information and communication sector, aiming to support the development of low-altitude infrastructure. The guidelines, which were released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other government departments, establish that ground mobile communication network coverage for low-altitude public air routes across the country should be no lower than 90 percent by 2027. They also mandate the development of at least 10 standards for information infrastructure and the cultivation of typical low-altitude application scenarios in fields such as urban governance, logistics and transportation, and culture and tourism. The guidelines call for the active development of the 5G-Advanced industry, upgrades to existing ground base stations, and the accelerated maturity of integrated sensing and communication technologies. The five departments urged coordinated efforts in network deployment, technological advancement and application development, and advocated the utilization of multiple funding channels to support research on key technologies, equipment development and application promotion for relevant information infrastructure. (Source: Xinhua) <table><tr><td colspan="2">Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">2026/2/11</td><td>Monthly Report on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI)</td></tr><tr><td>Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in the Industrial Sector</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/13</td><td>Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/28</td><td>Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development</td></tr></table> Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. 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