2008年-世界发展银行全球_Underpowered___The_State____________of_the_Power_Sector_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa_67页_762kb

报告摘要

Summary of AFRICA INFRASTRUCTURE COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC: The State of the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Core Content

This document is part of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a multi-donor initiative by the World Bank aimed at improving understanding of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa. It focuses on the power sector, analyzing its challenges, institutional frameworks, and potential for reform.

Main Points

1. Current State of the Power Sector

Sub-Saharan Africa has low power generation capacity, with the total installed capacity of 48 countries at 68 GW, which is less than that of Spain.
Excluding South Africa, the region's capacity is 28 GW, equivalent to Argentina's, but only 25% of this is currently operational.
The electrification rate is low, with less than a quarter of the population having access to electricity.
Per capita electricity consumption is 457 KWh annually, which is below the global average and falling in the region when South Africa is excluded.

2. Power Sector Challenges

Unreliable supply is a major issue, with 56 days of outages annually for manufacturing firms.
High electricity prices are a problem, with average tariffs in the region being double those of other developing regions and almost on par with high-income countries.
Inefficient generation is widespread, with many countries relying on expensive imported diesel or heavy fuel oil due to the lack of exploitable local energy resources.

3. Institutional and Regulatory Issues

Reforms have been introduced in most AICD countries, but hybrid power markets prevail, with state-owned utilities still dominating.
Private participation is limited, with only 3,000 MW of new capacity added by independent power producers (IPPs) over the past decade.
Regulatory independence is lacking, and tariff-setting is highly politicized, often leading to subsidies that do not effectively reach the poor.

4. Energy Resources and Potential

Sub-Saharan Africa has underdeveloped energy resources, with 93% of hydropower potential unexploited.
Hydropower is the most promising source, especially in DRC and Ethiopia, but these countries are geographically distant from major economic centers.
Natural gas reserves are concentrated in Nigeria, and oil reserves are in Nigeria, Angola, and Sudan.

5. Investment and Financing

The region spends 2.7% of GDP on the power sector, but high costs and low revenues prevent adequate financing.
Official development assistance (ODA) and private investment are insufficient, with combined external capital flows amounting to less than 0.1% of GDP.
China Ex-Im Bank has become a major financier, contributing $1.7 billion annually over 2001–06, mainly in hydropower and thermal projects.

6. Cross-Border Trade and Market Expansion

Regional power pools exist, but inter-country trade remains limited.
Expanding cross-border trade could lower costs and stimulate investment in low-cost generation.
Hydropower projects in Eastern and Southern Africa could displace more expensive sources like natural gas and coal.

7. Pathways to Reform

Smart regulation and institutional reform are essential for improving market efficiency and utility performance.
Performance contracts, better monitoring, and modern management practices can enhance cost recovery and service delivery.
Subsidy reform is needed to target the poor and free up fiscal resources for broader electrification.

Key Information

24 countries are covered in the first phase of AICD, representing 85% of the region's GDP, population, and infrastructure aid flows.
AICD provides a baseline for measuring progress and guides future investments and policy reforms.
Data and reports are available on the AICD website for further analysis and simulation.
Donors include the World Bank, African Union, European Union, UK, and others.
Peer reviewers from policy and academic circles ensure the technical quality of the study.

Conclusion

The power sector in Sub-Saharan Africa is in crisis, marked by low capacity, high costs, unreliable supply, and poor access. While reforms have been introduced, they have not been effective due to hybrid market structures and lack of regulatory independence. Cross-border trade and targeted investments are crucial to improving efficiency and expanding access. Smart regulation and institutional reform are also necessary to ensure long-term financial viability and sustainable development.

Key Figures and Statistics

Total installed capacity: 68 GW (48 countries), 28 GW (excluding South Africa).
Per capita electricity consumption: 457 KWh annually (excluding South Africa: 124 KWh).
Average tariff in 2005: $0.13/kWh (double other developing regions).
Average operating cost: $0.27/kWh.
Annual investment by China Ex-Im Bank: $1.7 billion (2001–06).
Hydropower potential: 937 TWh/year, with 93% unexploited.
Electricity access in urban areas: 70%.
Electricity access in rural areas: 10%.
Subsidy-related hidden costs: 1.8% of GDP (up to 4% in some countries).
Annualized cost savings from trade: up to 10%.
Potential cost reduction per kWh: up to $0.10 in some countries.

Recommendations

Improve utility performance through performance contracts and better monitoring.
Design better regulatory frameworks and increase transparency in procurement.
Target subsidies to low-income households and expand electrification to rural areas.
Promote cross-border power trade to lower costs and stimulate investment.
Leverage development finance institutions and private sector investment for long-term infrastructure development.