> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Crude Oil Weekly Report GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES Research Institute Chief Analyst, Administrative Head of Energy and Chemical Group ·Huang Liunan Investment consulting professional qualification number: Z0015892 Date: 2026-2-9 # CONTENTS # Overview Oil: Geopolitical risks still unresolved, light warehouse holiday # Macroscopic Comparison of interest rates, precious metals, and oil price trends Overseas service industry data China Credit Data # Supply Overview of Export Volume of OPEC+Core Member Countries Overview of Export Volume of Non-OPEC+Core Member Countries US shale oil production 04 # Demand Operating rates of refineries in Europe and America Operating rate of Chinese refineries 05 # Inventory Inventory of various types of oil products in the United States and Europe Inventory of various types of oil products in the Asia Pacific region 06 # Price and Spread Futures and spot basis difference Futures monthly spread Price difference between SC,WTI & Brent Net position change # Overview # 01 # Crude oil outlook for this week: Geopolitical risks still unresolved, light warehouse holiday <table><tr><td>Supply</td><td>The global crude oil supply currently exhibits regional divergence and increasing uncertainty. OPEC+ core members maintain production cuts but remain divided on future output policies, which will be decided at the March meeting. Non-OPEC+ supply has become the primary growth source, with strong production from countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, though U.S. output recently experienced a temporary decline due to severe cold weather. A key variable is the potential return of sanctioned crude oil: Venezuela's exports gradually recovered after partial U.S. sanctions were lifted; Russian crude oil floats in large quantities at sea, with its future flow dependent on geopolitical developments; and Iran's supply remains strictly constrained. Additionally, there is a divergence in light and heavy crude oil supply, with heavy crude tightening marginally due to factors like Venezuela, while light crude supply remains relatively ample. Overall, supply is far more influenced by geopolitics, sanction policies, and OPEC+ decisions than by fundamentals, leading to significantly heightened market volatility;</td></tr><tr><td>Demand</td><td>Global crude oil demand growth is showing a slowdown in pace and structural transformation. The primary drivers of demand growth remain concentrated in non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, but the momentum has weakened. China's demand growth exceeds expectations, yet the engine has clearly shifted from traditional transportation fuels (gasoline and diesel) to petrochemical feedstocks (naphtha), while the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption further suppresses incremental refined oil demand. India's demand remains stable, but its reliance on Russian crude may adjust import sources under U.S. pressure, increasing market uncertainty. In contrast, demand in OECD countries remains relatively weak, with sluggish European economic conditions continuing to constrain consumption. Additionally, the upcoming spring refinery maintenance season will lead to a seasonal weakening in short-term demand. High freight costs also dampen cross-regional trade and demand. Overall, demand faces dual pressures from macroeconomic slowdowns and energy structural transformation, with growth prospects trending toward moderation;</td></tr><tr><td>Opinion</td><td>Viewpoint: 1. Geopolitical risks may erupt again. After reaching a recent high this week, there is still a chance for short-term domestic and international oil prices to rise again. Among them, Brent, WTI or challenge at $75 per barrel, SC or challenge at $510 per barrel; 2. Looking at the trend, there is still significant downward pressure on Brent and WTI in the first half of the year. If potential strength appears, it will still be in its infancy, and the second quarter may test $50 per barrel. SC's decline may be less than the external market, testing 380 yuan/barrel; 3. The current round of trade frictions has accelerated the decline in oil prices, but it is difficult to achieve a long-term decline overnight. Pay attention to the potential reversal of macro expectations and the fluctuation or amplification of oil prices. Logic: 1. The situation in Iran may be volatile again, and there are variables in the peace talks. Emotional premiums may be released again; 2. In the medium to long term, Venezuelan crude oil may have a greater impact on the heavy oil market, with limited marginal impact on the overall global crude oil market; 3. After the sanctions on Russian oil in October, India has temporarily suspended its procurement, but at least China's refineries will become the final recipient, with a large amount of crude oil currently being transported in transit. And China is starting to consume raw material inventory, and in the medium to long term, it is difficult to interrupt supply, so pay attention to the pace; 4. OPEC+production continues to increase, with seasonal accumulation, and it will be difficult to falsify the global accumulation in the next three months;</td></tr><tr><td>Valuation</td><td>Short-term valuation is at the median;</td></tr><tr><td>strategy</td><td>1) Unilaterally: holding multiple orders at high prices and reducing positions; 2) Interperiod: reduction of holdings in the main set; 3) Cross variety: EFS spreads, multiple orders closing at high prices; Follow multi SC empty Dubai, multi SC empty Brent;</td></tr><tr><td>Risk</td><td>Uncertainties in the macro aspects such as the global economy, geography, and climate; price wars triggered by internal divisions within OPEC+; further breakthroughs in U.S. shale oil technology; and changes in macro sentiment.</td></tr></table> # Macroscopic View # 02 # The gold-to-oil ratio has rebound 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 U.S Treasury Yield: 10 years (right axis) Source: Bloomberg, GUOTAI JUAN FUTURES # Pay attention to inflation transmission 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 Source: GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES # The RMB exchange rate weakened slightly, and social financing declined. 中国社融 China social financing Offshore RMB Spot Source: GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 # Supply # 03 # Monthly export volume overview of OPEC+core member countries Monthly crude oil production: Algeria 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：阿尔及利亚：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: Nigeria 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：尼日利亚：当月值 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 Monthly crude oil production: Equatorial Guinea 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：赤道几内亚：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: Saudi Arabia 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：沙特阿拉伯：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: Iraq 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：伊拉克：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: UAE 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：阿联酋：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: Kuwait 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：科威特：当月值 Monthly crude oil production: Venezuela 原油：产量(基于直接来源)：委内瑞拉：当月值 Source: GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES # Overview of Weekly Export Volumes of OPEC+Core Member Countries Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports Kuwait's crude oil exports Russia's crude oil exports Oman's crude oil exports Iraq's crude oil exports UAE's crude oil exports 阿联酋原油出口 资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 Source: GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES # Overview of Weekly Export Volumes of OPEC+Core Member Countries Kazakhstan's crude oil exports Gabon's crude oil exports Libya's crude oil exports Iran's crude oil exports Nigeria's crude oil exports Venezuela's crude oil exports 资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 # Overview of Weekly Export Volumes of OPEC+Core Member Countries # Non OPEC+ Weekly crude oil supply # Demand # 04 # The operating rates of the United States and Europe may gradually increase seasonally, while the operating rates of China's main refineries have rebounded and the operating rates of local refineries have stabilized 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 # Inventory # 05 # U.S. commercial inventories stabilize; Cushing regional inventories remain significantly below historical averages U.S. commercial crude oil inventory kb (kbd) U.S. diesel Inventory kb (kbd) U.S. gasoline inventory kb (kbd) # Refining margins fluctuate with a strong bias 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 # Domestic refined oil gross profit has declined Weekly gross refining margins for gasoline at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China RMB/ton 独立炼厂汽油周度炼油毛利（区域）：中国：华东地区：山东省 -1000 Weekly gross refining margins for diesel at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China 资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 Weekly composite cost of gasoline at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China Weekly composite cost of diesel at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China China's Weekly Social Inventory of Gasoline China's Weekly Social Inventory of Diesel Weekly inventory of gasoline at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China Weekly inventory of diesel at independent refineries in Shandong Province, China # Price and Spread # 06 # North American basisrebounds 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 # The monthly difference rebounded slightly 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 # SC valuation is at a medium to low level, and the monthly spread has stabilized 资料来源：Bloomberg, Platts, INE, 国泰君安期货研究 Our company has the qualification for futures trading consulting business approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission The views and information in this content are for professional investors of Guotai Junan Futures only. 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