20220414-招银国际-华润啤酒-00291.HK-We_cut_2.5__of_our_2022E_shipment_forecast_to_factor-in_the_current_pandemic_impact_4页_1mb
报告摘要
CR Beer (291 HK) Company Update Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an equity research update on CR Beer (291 HK), focusing on the company's financial performance, earnings revisions, valuation, and key metrics. It highlights the impact of the ongoing pandemic on the company's forecast, management's strategy for premiumization, and the analysts' revised expectations for future performance.
Key Financial Updates
- Shipment Forecast:
- Revised 2022E shipment forecast to 10.7mnL (down 2.7% YoY).
- Cut by 2.5% to account for pandemic impact.
- Revenue Forecast:
- Cut 2022E revenue by 2% (to 34,494 RMB mn) and 2023E revenue by 4.1%.
- Net Profit Forecast:
- Cut 2022E net profit by 11.6% and 2023E by 18.2%.
- EPS (Recurring):
- Revised to 1.2 RMB (2022E), 1.3 RMB (2023E), and 1.6 RMB (2024E).
- EPS (2022E) is 9.1% below the analyst's previous forecast.
- Gross Margin:
- Revised to 39.5% for 2022E, a 2.2ppt decrease from prior estimates.
- Operating Margin:
- Revised to 16.5% for 2022E, with a 2.7ppt decrease from previous estimates.
- Net Margin:
- Revised to 11.1% for 2022E, a 1.2ppt decrease from prior estimates.
Earnings and Performance Highlights
- 1Q22 Revenue:
- High-single-digit growth, driven by a mid-single-digit ASP (Average Selling Price) increase and low-single-digit volume growth.
- Subpremium+ Sales:
- Increased by 20%, aligning with expectations.
- Premiumization Strategy:
- Management has set a 4mnL subpremium+ shipment target by 2025E, indicating continued focus on premium products.
- Mainstream SKUs:
- Expected to decline by 7% YoY, due to the company's shift away from mass market segments.
Valuation
- Target Price (TP):
- Revised to HK$71.0 (from HK$80.0), representing a +58.2% upside from the current price of HK$43.95.
- Valuation Multiple:
- Based on 29.0x 2022E EV/EBITDA, which is an average valuation since 2018.
- P/E Ratio:
- 31.0x for 2022E, 27.8x for 2023E, and 23.6x for 2024E.
- P/B Ratio:
- 4.5x for 2022E, 4.1x for 2023E, and 3.7x for 2024E.
- Dividend Yield:
- 1.3% for 2022E, 1.4% for 2023E, and 1.7% for 2024E.
- ROE:
- Expected to rise from 13.0% (2020A) to 16.3% (2024E).
- ROA:
- Expected to rise from 4.8% (2020A) to 9.8% (2024E).
Key Ratios and Metrics
- Sales Mix:
- Premium & Super Premium: 34.0% (2022E), increasing to 44.8% (2024E).
- Subpremium: 66.0% (2022E), decreasing to 55.2% (2024E).
- Net Debt to Equity:
- Maintained as Net Cash across all forecast periods.
- Current Ratio:
- Remains at 0.3x for all forecast years.
- Inventory Turnover Days:
- Stabilized at 120 days for 2022E to 2024E.
Analyst Recommendations
- Rating: BUY (Maintain)
- Target Price: HK$71.0
- Performance Outlook: The company is expected to outperform the sector over the next 12 months.
Shareholding and Stock Data
- Market Cap: HK$144,366 mn
- Average 3-Month Turnover: HK$626.65 mn
- 52-Week High/Low: HK$73.38 / HK$42.0
- Total Issued Shares: 3,244 mn
- Shareholding Structure:
- CRH Beer: 51.7%
- COMMOTRA Co.: 0.2%
Share Performance
- 1-Month Return: -4.7%
- 3-Month Return: -23.2%
- 6-Month Return: -26.3%
Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 31,448 | 33,387 | 34,494 | 35,849 | 38,426 |
| YoY Growth (%) | (5.2) | 6.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 7.2 |
| Net Income (RMB mn) | 2,094 | 4,587 | 3,832 | 4,281 | 5,042 |
| EPS – Recurring (RMB) | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 32.6 | 21.0 | 18.7 | 11.7 | 17.8 |
| Consensus EPS (RMB) | NA | NA | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| P/E (x) | NA | NA | 31.0 | 27.8 | 23.6 |
| P/B (x) | NA | NA | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Yield (%) | NA | NA | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ROE (%) | 13.0 | 14.1 | 15.0 | 15.4 | 16.3 |
| Net Gearing (%) | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Earnings Revision Summary
| Metric | New (2022E) | New (2023E) | New (2024E) | Old (2022E) | Old (2023E) | Old (2024E) | Diff (%) (2022E) | Diff (%) (2023E) | Diff (%) (2024E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (US$ mn) | 34,494 | 35,849 | 38,426 | 35,216 | 37,401 | NA | -2.1% | -4.1% | NA |
| Gross Profit | 13,507 | 14,568 | 16,204 | 14,559 | 16,045 | NA | -7.2% | -9.2% | NA |
| Operating Profit | 5,027 | 5,575 | 6,566 | 6,077 | 7,299 | NA | -17.3% | -23.6% | NA |
| Net Profit | 3,832 | 4,281 | 5,042 | 4,337 | 5,235 | NA | -11.6% | -18.2% | NA |
| EPS (US$ cents) | 1.18 | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.30 | 1.60 | NA | -9.1% | -17.5% | NA |
| Gross Margin | 39.16% | 40.64% | 42.17% | 41.34% | 42.90% | NA | -2.2ppt | -2.3ppt | NA |
| Operating Margin | 14.58% | 15.55% | 17.09% | 17.26% | 19.52% | NA | -2.7ppt | -4ppt | NA |
| Net Margin | 11.11% | 11.94% | 13.12% | 12.32% | 14.00% | NA | -1.2ppt | -2.1ppt | NA |
CMB International Global Markets Limited
- Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong
- Phone: (852) 3900 0888
- Fax: (852) 3900 0800
- Parent Company: CMB International Capital Corporation Limited, a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank
Risk and Disclaimer
- The report is for informational purposes only and does not provide tailored investment advice.
- Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor.
- CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
- The report may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
- The information is subject to change and based on public data and analyses.
- There are risks involved in transacting in any securities, and actual outcomes may differ from forecasts.
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