战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-4,-No-27_2页_275kb

SELECT BRIEFING EUROPE EAST Summary (July 13, 2007)

Core Content Overview

This summary provides an update on political, economic, and strategic developments in Central, Southeast, and Eastern European countries, focusing on Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic States, and Croatia. It highlights key diplomatic engagements, economic policies, and regional cooperation efforts, particularly in the context of EU integration and Eurozone accession.

Poland

• Diplomatic Engagement: President Lech Kaczynski met with Czech President Vaclav Klaus to discuss EU constitutional treaty, voting weights in the Council of the European Union, trade, and missile defense. They also emphasized cooperation within the Visegrad Group.
• Political Developments: The two opposition parties, the Democratic Left Alliance and Civic Platform, initiated motions to dissolve the Sejm (lower house of parliament) following the President’s dismissal of Deputy Prime Minister Andrzej Lepper over corruption allegations.
• Historical Remembrance: Authorities plan to remove Soviet-era monuments, but will not relocate the graves of Soviet soldiers. The rationale is that the Soviet period was not the best in Poland’s history.

Czech Republic

• Economic Challenges: EU finance ministers criticized the Czech Republic for inadequate budget deficit control, expecting it to rise to 4% in 2007. To meet Eurozone criteria, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek announced plans for a 15% flat tax on personal income starting in 2008 and further measures by 2012.
• Missile Defense: Former Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda revealed that the Czech government first discussed the U.S. missile defense radar proposal with the U.S. in 2002. The current Foreign Minister, Karel Schwarzenberg, dismissed Russian criticism as a U.S.-centric game and claimed it does not affect Czech interests.

Hungary

• Energy Cooperation: Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány met with Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko to discuss a 1 billion cubic meter underground gas storage facility in Ukraine.
• Eurozone Accession: The EU Commission acknowledged Hungary’s efforts to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2009. Despite this, concerns remain about the pace of deficit reduction.
• Defense Policy: NATO urged Hungary to increase defense spending, but the government maintained its current budget at 1.2% of GDP. It remains committed to resource efficiency and cooperation with NATO.

Slovakia

• Economic Reforms: The Slovak parliament passed amendments to the 2004 Labor Code, which is business-friendly, with approval from both business and labor sectors.
• Political Criticism: Vladimir Meciar, leader of the HZDS party, criticized the intelligence service for lack of transparency and supervision. HZDS holds two of sixteen ministerial posts in the governing coalition.

Slovenia

• Infrastructure Development: Slovenia signed a EUR 12 million contract with a local construction company to improve railway infrastructure, part of a larger EU-sponsored project expected to be completed by 2009.
• Energy Cooperation: Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel met with Hungarian counterpart Kinga Goncz to discuss energy and economic collaboration, including potential grid connections and joint ventures in oil and power sectors. A joint government session on energy policy is planned for October.
• EU Engagement: Rupel also met with the new British Foreign Secretary David Miliband in London to discuss EU issues and attended a conference on EU global challenges.

Baltic States Update

Estonia

• Economic Outlook: Marje Josing warned of a potential slowdown in economic growth from 11.4% to 5-7% by 2008-2009, citing risks from the current account deficit (17.9% of GDP) and wage growth outpacing productivity.
• Eurozone Accession: Maintaining inflation control is a key criterion for joining the Eurozone, which Estonia is still working to achieve.

Latvia

• Leadership Change: Valdis Zatlers was sworn in as the new President, replacing Vaira Vik-Freiberga. He pledged to unite Latvian society and ease tensions with ethnic Russians.
• Economic Indicators: Despite fears of an economic slump, Latvia saw a 0.9% rise in consumer prices in June, increasing the 12-month inflation rate to 8.8%. The country had previously experienced high growth (11.9% in 2006 and 10.7% in Q1 2007).
• Euro Adoption: Inflation control remains critical for Latvia’s Euro adoption, which has been delayed.

Lithuania

• Afghanistan Aid: Birute Abraitiene, head of the Lithuanian Special Mission in Afghanistan, pledged increased aid. Lithuania has been involved in reconstruction efforts in Ghor province since 2005.

Southeast European Update

Bulgaria

• Economic Performance: 2006 saw a 6.1% GDP growth, record FDI of EUR 4,000 million, and a drop in unemployment to 9.1%.
• Energy Cooperation: Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin emphasized cooperation with Georgia in energy, transport, and infrastructure. A framework protocol was signed, and border-crossing procedures were eased.
• Legal Issue: Libya confirmed death sentences for five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor, who were accused of infecting 400 children with HIV in 1999. The EU expressed commitment to resolving the issue diplomatically.

Romania

• Economic Growth: Romania's GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter of 2007, driven by industry and construction. Construction production rose by 28.4%, and unemployment remained stable at 4.1%.
• Security Cooperation: Estonian and Romanian Defense Ministers met to discuss security in the Black Sea region. Romania expressed interest in supporting NATO’s cyber defense center in Estonia and will contribute four fighters to air space security rotations.

Croatia

• Energy Infrastructure: Croatia and Hungary signed a EUR 40 million contract to build powerline connections between Erenstivovo and Pecs, expected to be completed by March 2010.
• EU Membership Support: Croatian President Stjepan Mesic visited Bulgaria and received support for Croatia’s EU and NATO accession. He emphasized that EU membership for all Balkan countries would bring long-term peace and stability.

Key Themes

• EU Integration: All countries are focused on meeting EU and Eurozone criteria, including budget deficits, inflation control, and economic reforms.
• Regional Cooperation: There is a strong emphasis on energy, transport, and economic collaboration between neighboring states.
• Political Dynamics: Opposition parties and political leaders are actively engaging in policy debates and reforms, often challenging government decisions.
• Diplomatic Tensions: Issues such as missile defense and historical monuments have sparked diplomatic discussions and criticisms, particularly with Russia.

Conclusion

The document outlines a range of political, economic, and strategic developments in Central and Southeast Europe, reflecting the region’s ongoing efforts to integrate into the EU, address internal challenges, and strengthen regional ties. Key themes include economic reform, security cooperation, and the complex interplay of domestic and international politics in shaping the future of these nations.