兰德-Travel-in-Britain-in-2035_-Future-scenarios-and-their-implications-for-technology-innovation_89页_4mb

Summary of "Travel in Britain in 2035"

Core Content

This report explores future travel scenarios in Britain by 2035, with a focus on how emerging technologies can influence transport efficiency and reduce congestion. It was commissioned by Innovate UK and conducted by RAND Europe in collaboration with other research entities. The report outlines three distinct future scenarios, each representing a different trajectory of technological development and societal change, and provides insights into the implications for policy and innovation investment.

Main Objectives

• To identify key technologies that can influence travel demand, increase transport network capacity, and improve the productivity of travelers.
• To develop plausible future scenarios for transport in Britain, considering social, economic, and technological factors.
• To examine the policy and innovation implications of these scenarios, with a focus on ensuring efficient and effective transport systems in the future.

Key Technologies

The report identifies six key technologies that are likely to have a significant impact on the transport network by 2035:

1. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): These vehicles can operate with minimal or no human input, potentially reducing costs and increasing travel efficiency. They are expected to play a major role in both passenger and freight transport.
2. Next-Generation ICT Connectivity / Telecommuting / Telehealth: These technologies, including advanced telecommunications and remote work/healthcare solutions, are expected to reduce travel demand through digital substitution.
3. User Apps / Big Data / Intelligent Processing: These tools will help individuals and organizations make better transport decisions, using data analytics and smart processing.
4. Advanced Manufacturing (including 3D printing): This could reduce the need for long-distance freight by enabling localized production of goods.
5. Internet of Things (IoT): IoT devices will allow for more connected and efficient transport systems, enabling real-time monitoring and communication between infrastructure and vehicles.
6. Novel Materials and Embedded Sensors in Infrastructure: These innovations can improve the maintenance and durability of transport infrastructure, reducing disruptions and increasing reliability.

Future Scenarios

Three future scenarios were developed to explore different possible futures:

1. Driving Ahead: A scenario where GDP and per capita travel increase beyond expectations. AVs drive this growth, especially in healthcare and retail, with a shift towards shared vehicles. This leads to increased vehicle travel and congestion.
2. Live Local: A scenario where digital substitution reduces travel demand, and per capita travel is lower. Advanced ICT, user apps, and IoT are key enablers. Environmental awareness and decentralization of population and employment away from London also contribute to this trend.
3. Digital Divide: A scenario where economic growth is slower than anticipated, and many advanced technologies remain financially out of reach. This leads to a more fragmented use of technology, with AVs and 3D printing used primarily in freight. A sharing economy becomes more prominent.

Policy and Innovation Implications

The report outlines several recommendations for policy and investment:

• Invest in robust technological interventions that are effective across different future scenarios. This includes ensuring the availability of high-quality ICT services and supporting data governance and transparency.
• Develop policies that manage travel demand, such as road pricing and promoting telecommuting and telehealth.
• Support the development of new business models that enable the effective use of emerging technologies.
• Address key barriers to innovation, including data security, legal frameworks, and public acceptability.
• Ensure equitable access to technologies that can bring substantial societal benefits, particularly for vulnerable groups like the elderly.
• Support pilot testing of new technologies to assess their real-world impact and effectiveness.

Methodology

The study used a futures methodology that included:

• Technology review: Identifying key technologies that could influence transport efficiency.
• Scenario development: Creating three future scenarios based on different assumptions about GDP, technology, and travel patterns.
• Expert interviews: Gathering insights from professionals in government, academia, and industry to assess the implications of the scenarios for innovation and policy.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of technology in shaping the future of transport in Britain, and the need for strategic investment and policy development to ensure that these technologies are used effectively to reduce congestion and improve the efficiency of the transport system. It highlights the value of exploring multiple future scenarios to prepare for a range of possible outcomes and to guide innovation and policy decisions accordingly.