2021-05-31-IMF-拉丁美洲的新冠疫情_对生命和生计造成的巨大损失（英文）_60页_7mb

Summary

Latin America experienced severe COVID-19 impacts despite early lockdowns, comparable to Western Europe and the US. Key findings include:

• Early Lockdowns Not Effective: Lockdowns in Latin America occurred when a large portion of the population was still susceptible, requiring drastic reductions in virus transmission, which were not consistently achieved. This contrasted with Europe, where lockdowns targeted smaller susceptible groups.

• Behavioral Rebound: As COVID-19 cases grew, mobility rebounded, undermining lockdown effects. In Latin America, mobility increased while deaths rose, whereas in Europe, mobility rebounded after case declines.

• Weak Government Efficacy: Lower government effectiveness (weak institutions, informality) hampered lockdown compliance and spread. Countries with higher informality or lower governance scores saw reduced policy effectiveness.

• Structural Vulnerabilities: Factors including high overweight/obesity rates, aging populations, institutional weakness, and poor health infrastructure correlated with higher death tolls. BCG vaccination history may have offered some protection.

• Economic Impact: Lockdowns significantly reduced activity and mobility, with tense early policies causing a deep economic downturn, but mobility response normalized even as death tolls rose.

The pandemic in Latin America is not contained, driven by limited vaccine uptake, heightened second-wave risks from variants and temperature drops, and institutional weaknesses. Future strategies must balance easing restrictions with sufficient herd immunity and vaccine distribution to mitigate severe outcomes.