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Equity Research Summary: North America - Power & Utilities

Executive Orders and Budget Bill Impact

• Nuclear Policy Win: Positive week for nuclear power following President Trump's executive orders (EO) and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) budget bill.
  • EOs focus on large and small nuclear, aiming to lower fuel supply risk and reduce costs for existing and new reactors.
  • OBBB improved the nuclear production tax credit (PTC) backstop initially.

Benefits and Challenges

• Key Beneficiaries: CEG (Constellation Energy), VST (Vistra Corp), TLN (Talen Energy), PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group), DUK (Duke Energy). New small modular reactor initiatives gain support.
• Governance/Regulatory Changes: Provisions like shorter licensing regimes, incentives for American nuclear technology, collaborations with the defense sector.
• Industry Concerns:
  • High Costs Overrun: TVA estimates $9k+/kW for initial SMRs vs $2k-2.5k/kW for new gas plants; further risks remain despite regulatory reforms.
  • Upgrades/Permitting Delays: Even upgrades like the Columbia uprate (estimated $4.3k/kW) face challenges.

Competition & Markets

• Merchant Power Renewables Damage: Texas storage/project losses due to tariffs and lost tax credits ($10-25/MWh higher costs) indirectly increase power prices and favor nuclear/gas.
• Data Center Demand: Constellation CEO highlighted the potential scale ($200-300Bn) but no explicit engagement.

Data Points and Charts

• Nuclear Costs Comparison: TVA $9.1k-18k/kW vs gas ($2k-2.5k/kW) and contracts.
• Electricity Hub Compensation: Nuclear receives $50-53/MWh despite some inefficiencies from higher returns in regional hubs ($60/MWh projected in 2028).

Regulatory Developments

• NRC Reforms: Shorter timelines (400GW target by 2050), simplified processes, reduced staffing ("high-volume licensing"), emphasis on national security and faster deployment.

Companies to Note

• Valuations Table: Duke Energy (BUY) & TLN (BUY), TVA exploring SMRs.

Caveats

• Significant cost barriers for new nuclear.
• Regulatory reform timeline may depend on further legislative support.