2025-12-17-IMF-海湾合作委员会（GCC）-增强对全球冲击的抵御能力_GCC国家的经济前景和政策挑战（英）_98页_2mb

Summary of the IMF Staff Report: Enhancing Resilience to Global Shocks - Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries (2025)

Core Content

The IMF staff report evaluates the economic resilience and policy challenges of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the context of global shocks and uncertainty. It outlines the current economic situation, future outlook, and the need for policy reforms to enhance resilience and diversify economies.

Main Points

Economic Resilience Amid Global Shocks

• The GCC economies have shown resilience despite a challenging external environment.
• Non-hydrocarbon activities have remained robust due to strong domestic demand, ongoing reforms, and limited spillovers from regional tensions and U.S. tariffs (energy products are exempt).
• External balances have narrowed due to oil production cuts and increased imports, but overall external positions remain strong.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Global Economy: Projected to decelerate in 2025 and 2026 due to elevated uncertainty and protectionism. Global growth is expected to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026.
• GCC Outlook: Growth is expected to remain favorable, supported by the unwinding of oil production cuts, expansion of natural gas, and strong reform implementation. However, risks are tilted to the downside due to potential oil price declines and tighter financial conditions.
• Inflation: Headline inflation has stabilized at around 1.5% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, with tradable inflation remaining muted and non-tradable inflation falling below 1% in most countries.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• The challenge is to balance countercyclical stabilization, intergenerational equity, and economic diversification.
• Short-term: A mildly contractionary fiscal stance is appropriate, with no need for additional consolidation due to strong policy buffers.
• Medium to long-term: Fiscal consolidation of 6–18% of non-oil GDP is required in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. This should focus on mobilizing non-hydrocarbon revenues, phasing out energy subsidies, and maintaining high-priority capital spending for diversification.
• Reforms should include credible medium-term fiscal frameworks, appropriate fiscal rules, enhanced risk monitoring, and improved sovereign asset-liability management.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• Current monetary frameworks, aligned with currency pegs, have been effective and should be maintained.
• Priority should be given to improving monetary policy transmission, enhancing liquidity management, and deepening financial markets.
• The banking system is in a strong position, and macroprudential policies should continue to manage systemic risks. Financial regulation should align with international standards.

Structural Policies

• Accelerating economic diversification is crucial to build resilience against global shocks.
• Key areas for reform include:
  • Productivity-enhancing reforms
  • Deepening domestic financial markets
  • Increased trade and financial integration

Enabling Environment

• The business climate has improved, but further progress is needed.
• Administrative procedures should be streamlined, and the rule of law and transparency in public procurement must be enhanced.
• Addressing wage gaps, improving expatriate worker mobility, and increasing female labor force participation (FLFP) are critical for labor market development.

Digitalization and AI

• Leveraging digitalization and AI is a priority to boost productivity.
• Policies should avoid overregulation, support innovation, and enhance workers' adaptability to new technologies.
• Social safety nets should be strengthened to protect displaced workers.

Domestic Financial Markets

• Deeper financial markets can support long-term investment and diversification.
• Efforts should focus on:
  • Expanding private sector credit, especially for SMEs
  • Developing local currency bond markets
  • Improving credit information systems and financial literacy
  • Reducing structural impediments like low private savings and liquidity

Trade and Financial Integration

• Fostering new and diverse international economic relationships can reduce trade uncertainty.
• Reducing non-tariff barriers and improving trade agreements at the country and GCC level are important.
• Continued GCC investments in partner regions can enhance trade and financial integration.
• Relaxing foreign investment restrictions can support financial integration.

Key Information

• Fiscal Balance: The GCC has maintained fiscal discipline, with varying levels of surpluses and deficits. Non-hydrocarbon fiscal balances are broadly stable or improving.
• Trade Impact: U.S. tariffs have had a modest direct impact on the GCC due to exemptions on energy products and limited trade ties. The economic impact is contained, with some countries experiencing temporary capital outflow pressures.
• Policy Focus: The report emphasizes the need for proactive policies to build resilience, including fiscal consolidation, monetary reform, and structural changes to diversify the economy and enhance productivity.
• Uncertainty and Volatility: Elevated global uncertainty and commodity price volatility pose risks to economic stability. The GCC must adapt to these challenges through policy reforms and improved financial frameworks.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the GCC economies have demonstrated resilience, they face ongoing risks from global uncertainty and structural shifts. The focus should remain on accelerating economic diversification, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and improving monetary and financial sector resilience to ensure long-term stability and growth in a volatile global environment.