> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Summary ## Core Content Tongcheng Travel (TC) released its second-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting **RMB5.0bn in revenue**, a **6.8% YoY increase**, which is **broadly in line with estimates** and **0.8% above Bloomberg consensus**. Adjusted net profit (Adj. NP) reached **RMB851mn**, up **9.8% YoY**, and **1.4% above estimate**, **0.7% above consensus**. The core OTA revenue grew **8.4% YoY**, while the core OTA operating margin reached **26.4%**, **0.4ppt above forecast**. The company remains **cost-disciplined** and continues to **invest selectively** in customer retention and user engagement. However, **extreme weather disruptions** during the summer peak travel season are expected to **moderate near-term revenue growth**. As a result, the analysts have **lowered 2026E revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts by 1% and 4%**, respectively. ## Key Financials ### Revenue - **2Q26**: RMB5.0bn (+6.8% YoY) - **FY26E**: RMB20.8bn (+7.5% YoY) - **FY27E**: RMB22.27bn (+6.8% YoY) - **FY28E**: RMB23.36bn (+4.9% YoY) ### Adjusted Net Profit - **2Q26**: RMB851mn (+9.8% YoY) - **FY26E**: RMB3.7bn (+9.2% YoY) - **FY27E**: RMB4.06bn - **FY28E**: RMB4.367bn ### Core OTA Revenue - **2Q26**: RMB4.3bn (87.1% of total revenue) - **FY26E**: RMB14.194bn (+9.3% YoY) - **FY27E**: RMB15.421bn - **FY28E**: RMB16.226bn ### Core OTA Operating Profit - **2Q26**: RMB1.1bn (+8.4% YoY) - **FY26E**: RMB4.011bn - **FY27E**: RMB4.495bn - **FY28E**: RMB4.881bn ### Core OTA Operating Margin - **2Q26**: 26.4% (up 0.4ppt from forecast) - **FY26E**: 28.6% - **FY27E**: 29.2% - **FY28E**: 29.5% ## Outlook ### 3Q26 Forecast - **Total Revenue**: RMB5.8bn (+5.3% YoY) - **Core OTA Revenue**: RMB4.3bn (+6.8% YoY) - **Tourism Revenue**: RMB643mn (-2.5% YoY) - **Core OTA Operating Profit**: RMB1.1bn (+3% YoY) - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: RMB1.13bn (+6.2% YoY) - **Core OTA Operating Margin**: 30.0% (down 1.2ppt YoY) - **Non-GAAP Net Margin**: 19.4% ### 2026E Forecast - **Core OTA Revenue Growth**: 9.3% YoY (previously: 10.6%) - **Core OTA Operating Margin**: 28.6% (previously: 29.0%) - **Group Revenue Growth**: 7.5% YoY - **Group Non-GAAP Net Profit Growth**: 9.2% YoY ## Valuation - **Target Price (HK$)**: **23.70** (down 5% from previous TP of HK$25.00) - **2026E Non-GAAP PE**: **14x** - **DCF-based Valuation (HK$)**: **23.70 per share** - **P/E (Diluted)**: 7.3x (FY26E) - **P/B**: 1.0x (FY26E) - **P/CFPS**: 6.5x (FY26E) ## Shareholding and Stock Data - **Market Cap (HK$)**: **31,408.6mn** - **Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$)**: **174.8mn** - **52w High/Low (HK$)**: **25.32/11.99** - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: **2,397.6** - **Shareholding Structure**: - **Tencent Holdings Ltd**: 20.2% - **Trip.com Group Ltd**: 19.7% ## Risk Factors 1. **Greater-than-expected macro-economic headwinds** 2. **Slower-than-expected margin expansion** 3. **Consumption sentiment weaker than expected** ## Analyst Rating - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY** - **Reasoning**: Despite the challenges, **travel demand remains resilient**, and the company is expected to **deliver 8%–9% YoY growth in core OTA operating profit and group-level non-GAAP net profit in 2026E**. ## Summary of Key Points - TC's 2Q26 revenue and adjusted net profit **modestly beat expectations**, with core OTA performance **stronger than forecast**. - **Extreme weather** is expected to **hinder near-term growth**, leading to **revised forecasts** for 2026E. - The **target price** is **HK$23.70**, implying a **14x non-GAAP PE** for FY26E. - The **analysts maintain a BUY rating**, citing **resilient travel demand** and **positive growth outlook**. - **Share performance** has been **negative** over the past 6 months, with a **-40.8% decline**. - **Valuation metrics** are **declining**, with **P/E** at 7.3x for FY26E. - **Key risks** include **macroeconomic headwinds** and **margin pressures**.