> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 122: Temperature Change Statistics (1961–2025) ## Core Content This analytical brief provides a comprehensive overview of global, regional, and country-level temperature change trends from 1961 to 2025, based on data from the FAOSTAT Temperature change on land dataset. The data are produced in collaboration with NASA–GISS and use the 1951–1980 period as a reference climatology. ## Main Highlights - **Global Warming**: - 2025 was the second warmest year on record with a global mean annual temperature anomaly of **1.9 °C** above the 1951–1980 baseline. - 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the **three warmest consecutive years** ever recorded. - **January 2025** was the warmest month on record, with all months in 2025 exceeding **1.3 °C** above the baseline. - **Regional Trends**: - **Europe** had the highest warming (2.7 °C), followed by **the Americas** (1.9 °C) and **Asia** (1.8 °C). - **Oceania** (1.4 °C) and **Africa** (1.3 °C) remained below the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold. - Subregions with the strongest warming include **Central Asia** (3.1 °C), **Eastern Europe** (2.8 °C), and **Northern America and Northern Europe** (both 2.5 °C). - The **lowest warming** was observed in **Melanesia, Polynesia, and Southern Africa** (0.9 °C), followed by **Middle Africa** (1.1 °C). - **Country-Level Analysis**: - **109 out of 223 countries and territories** experienced warming above **1.5 °C** in 2025, representing **nearly half the world population** (4.1 billion people) and **half the agricultural land area** (2.6 billion hectares). - The **Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands (Norway)** recorded the **highest warming anomaly** for the **fifth consecutive year**, at **3.9 °C**. - Countries with the strongest warming in 2025 include **Kazakhstan** (3.3 °C), **Kyrgyzstan**, **Canada**, **Finland**, **Russia**, **Estonia**, **Uzbekistan**, **Sweden**, **Andorra**, and **Belarus**. - The **least affected countries** were mainly **tropical islands, oceanic territories, and southern hemisphere regions**, where **marine influences** moderate temperature changes. Examples include the **Solomon Islands** (0.3 °C), **South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands** (0.4 °C), **Botswana** (0.4 °C), and the **Marshall Islands** (0.5 °C). ## Key Information - **Temperature Anomalies**: - Temperature changes are measured as **deviations from the 1951–1980 baseline**. - **Normal anomalies** are defined as within **±2σ** (95% confidence interval), while **much warmer** anomalies are those exceeding **±3σ** (99.7% confidence interval). - The **global warming trend** has been **nearly linear since the mid-1980s**, with the last decade averaging around **+1.5 °C**, matching the **Paris Agreement threshold**. - **Population and Agricultural Exposure**: - **Asia** had the largest population (2.5 billion) and agricultural land area (1.3 billion hectares) affected by warming above **1.5 °C**. - **Europe** was the most exposed region, with **nearly 100% of its population** and **agricultural land** in countries with warming above **1.5 °C**. - The **share of population and agricultural land** in countries with warming above **1.5 °C** has **doubled every decade** in most regions. - **Methodology**: - Temperature data are based on the **NASA–GISS GISTEMP dataset**, with a **resolution of 500 km** for gridded values. - A **finer 250 km resolution** was used for the **FAOSTAT dataset**, excluding ocean data. - Country-level data are **area-weighted** using the **FAOSTAT Land Use dataset**. - The dataset accounts for **administrative changes** since 1961, such as the **split of the Soviet Union** and the **separation of Sudan**. - The **uncertainty** in temperature data varies by region: - **Global and regional aggregates** have **5–10% uncertainty** (typically **0.1–0.2 °C**). - **Country-level data** may have **higher uncertainty**, depending on the **density of meteorological stations**. ## Conclusion The data highlight a **significant acceleration in global warming**, with **2025** being a pivotal year in the context of the **Paris Agreement**. The **consecutive record-breaking years** of 2023–2025 underscore the **increasing frequency of extreme warming events**. The **impact is uneven**, with **high-latitude and continental regions** experiencing the **strongest warming**, while **tropical islands** and **oceanic territories** remain relatively **cool** due to **marine influences**. The **FAOSTAT dataset** offers a **crucial tool** for monitoring and assessing **climate risks to food and agriculture** at various levels. ## References - **FAO**. 2026. FAOSTAT: Temperature change on land. [Accessed March 2026]. - **GISTEMP Team**. 2026. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4. - **IPCC**. 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. - **Lenssen et al.**. 2019. Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model. - **Menne et al.**. 2018. The global historical climatology network monthly temperature dataset, version 4. ## Contacts - **FAO Statistics Division** - Email: FAO-Statistics@fao.org - Website: https://www.fao.org/about/who-we-are/departments/statistics-division ## License - **CC-BY-4.0** (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License) - **FAOSTAT** is a public domain dataset.