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Summary of "Turkey's Transformers"

Core Content

The article "Turkey's Transformers" by Morton Abramowitz and Henri J. Barkey analyzes the political and foreign policy trajectory of Turkey under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It highlights the internal and external challenges the country faces as it seeks to redefine its role in the international community while navigating domestic tensions.

Main Views

1. Domestic Political Dynamics

• The AKP, despite its popularity and economic success, faces significant domestic challenges, particularly regarding its policies toward the Kurdish population.
• There is a divide between AKP supporters (center-right politicians, liberals, religious groups) and secularists, military, and nationalists.
  • Supporters view the AKP as a force for democratic reform and a break from the military's dominance.
  • Critics argue the party is increasingly authoritarian, religious, and undermining secular institutions, such as the military and judiciary.
• The AKP has made progress in reducing the military's political influence through legal reforms, but the military remains a powerful force in Turkish politics.
• The party has not fulfilled its promises on Kurdish rights, which continues to be a major political issue and a drag on reforms and foreign policy.

2. Foreign Policy Ambitions

• The AKP has pursued an ambitious foreign policy, aiming to transform Turkey into a global power and a respected actor in international affairs.
• Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, promotes a vision of "zero problems with neighbors" and seeks to engage with both Muslim and non-Muslim countries.
• Turkey has improved its relations with Russia and Armenia, but these efforts have not fully resolved long-standing issues.
• Turkey's diplomatic interventions in the Middle East, such as mediating between Israel and Syria, have drawn mixed reactions from the West, with some fearing overreach and a shift away from Western values.

3. Challenges to EU Accession

• Turkey's Cyprus issue remains the biggest obstacle to EU membership.
• The EU has not rewarded Turkey for its pro-European stance, especially in Cyprus, which has undermined the AKP's credibility.
• The Armenian genocide issue also complicates Turkey's relations with the EU and the U.S.
• The Nabucco pipeline project has increased Turkey's strategic importance, but its success is uncertain due to economic and geopolitical factors.

Key Information

Economic and Political Success

• The AKP's economic policies led to rapid growth and political stability, making it the dominant party in Turkey.
• The party has managed to reduce the military's political power, but this has not fully resolved tensions.

Kurdish Policy

• The AKP has made some progress in engaging with the Iraqi Kurds, but it has not significantly advanced the rights of the 12–14 million Kurds within Turkey.
• The government's stance on the PKK and potential amnesty for its fighters is critical to the future of Kurdish relations.
• The democratic opening to the Kurdish question is seen as a potential turning point, but it requires a long and difficult process.

Relations with the West

• Turkey's multidimensional foreign policy has led to both opportunities and tensions with the U.S. and EU.
• The Armenian genocide issue continues to be a major point of contention, especially with the U.S. under President Obama.
• The Nabucco pipeline and diplomatic engagements have enhanced Turkey's global standing, but the government's overconfidence may lead to miscalculations.

Cultural and Religious Shifts

• The AKP has allowed for more public expressions of Islam, such as the headscarf ban in universities, which has unsettled secular elites.
• The secularist establishment remains wary of the party's increasing religious influence.
• There is a growing nativism in Turkish society, with many citizens expressing distrust of foreigners and a preference for a more culturally conservative identity.

Conclusion

The AKP has the potential to transform Turkey into a more democratic and globally engaged nation, but it faces significant challenges. The party's success depends on its ability to address the Kurdish issue, maintain its relationship with the West, and avoid overreaching in its foreign policy. While the government has made strides in reducing military influence and engaging with international partners, it must also navigate internal divisions and cultural resistance to achieve lasting change. The West should support Turkey's reform efforts while maintaining a balanced and critical approach to its evolving political landscape.