2025-06-09-花旗集团-非洲经济与战略周报_如何看待近期塞地升值和持续的梅蒂卡尔稳定_16页_227kb

Summary of Africa Economics & Strategy Weekly

Core Content

This report analyzes the recent trends in the Ghana cedi (GHS) and Mozambique metical (MZN), focusing on whether these currencies can maintain their current levels or experience adjustments in the second half of 2025.

Ghana Cedi (GHS) Appreciation

Key Developments

• The GHS has appreciated significantly since late April 2025, moving from around GHS15.5:US$1 in early April to GHS10.3:US$1 in early June, a level not seen since mid-2023.
• This appreciation is not solely due to market forces; the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has intervened significantly, potentially totaling US$500m in April and May alone, and could reach over US$1bn for the year.
• The current account surplus has improved to 4.3% of GDP in 2024, and is expected to remain stable in 2025.
• Inflation has declined from 23.5% YoY in January 2025 to 18.4% YoY in May 2025, with the BoG Prime Rate at 28%.
• The economy is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2025, despite a slowdown from the 5.8% annual growth in Q2 and Q3 2024.

Concerns

• Fiscal challenges remain, with the fiscal deficit still high and the government's consolidation efforts uncertain.
• Foreign exchange liquidity has not improved significantly, which may be due to lingering confidence issues following the 2022 default.
• The BoG's gold purchases have been a key component of its reserve rebuilding, with gross foreign assets rising from US$5.88bn in January 2023 to US$9.1bn in January 2025, with gold holdings increasing by over 70%.

Outlook

• Two likely outcomes are considered:
  • The cedi may stabilise at current levels (around GHS10.5:US$1), similar to the Kenyan shilling in 2024.
  • More likely, the cedi may weaken, possibly stabilising around GHS13:US$1, unless liquidity improves significantly.

Mozambique Metical (MZN) Stability

Key Developments

• The MZN has remained stable since mid-2021, trading around MZN64:US$1.
• Political stability has improved after the October 2024 elections, with the passage of the Political Commitment for an Inclusive Dialogue Act and the meeting between President Chapo and his rival Mondlane.
• The reconciliation process is expected to proceed slowly due to deep-rooted mistrust.

Economic Context

• The fiscal deficit is estimated at 6.5% of GDP in 2024, driven by election-related costs and security expenses.
• Foreign exchange reserves have been under pressure, and the IMF has not completed the current ECF programme, which was scheduled to end in May 2025.
• The IMF is expected to initiate discussions for a new programme, similar to Kenya, which could provide additional financial support.

Exchange Rate Stability

• The MZN is considered overvalued by the IMF's current account real exchange rate model, with an estimated 38% overvaluation.
• Foreign exchange payment backlogs have increased, with US$205m in April 2025, compared to US$127m in October 2024.
• The central bank (BdM) may face pressure to devaluate the metical to correct the overvaluation, similar to the Ethiopian birr (ETB) in mid-2024.

Outlook

• The MZN may adjust in 2H 2025, either through a gradual depreciation or a more significant devaluation, depending on the IMF programme and the BdM's ability to manage liquidity.
• The redevelopment of gas reserves (e.g., Rovuma LNG project) and political reconciliation offer a positive path forward, but exchange rate stability remains a key risk.

Key Takeaways

• GHS Appreciation: Driven by BoG intervention, improved macroeconomic fundamentals, and positive growth expectations, but liquidity challenges and fiscal uncertainty may lead to a reversal in the second half of the year.
• MZN Stability: Sustained due to political calm and central bank efforts, but overvaluation and foreign exchange backlogs suggest the need for adjustment, potentially similar to the ETB.
• Common Themes: Both currencies are influenced by exchange rate policy, fiscal consolidation, and political stability.
• Exchange Rate Regime: The soft peg model may not be sustainable, and adjustment is likely if the IMF programme and market conditions do not improve significantly.

Appendix A-1: Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• The research analysts are certified to the extent that their views reflect personal opinions and are prepared independently.
• There are conflicts of interest noted, including investment banking relationships with several African countries.
• Non-US analysts may not be registered with FINRA, and thus are not subject to certain restrictions.
• Recommendations are disclosed with percentage breakdowns for each quarter, with "Buy", "Hold", "Sell", and "Relative Value" defined in the report.

Conclusion

The report highlights the complex interplay between monetary policy, fiscal management, and political stability in shaping the exchange rate dynamics of Ghana and Mozambique. While the GHS has appreciated due to intervention and improved fundamentals, the MZN's stability may not be sustainable without liquidity improvements and fiscal reforms. Both currencies face challenges in maintaining their current levels, and adjustments are likely in the second half of 2025.