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US-Iran Tensions Summary

Core Content

The current US-Iran tensions have escalated significantly since late February 2026, leading to a fragile two-week truce. Despite direct talks in Islamabad in early April, no substantive agreement was reached, and both parties have shown little willingness to compromise. The situation remains volatile, with the risk of prolonged conflict and further escalation being high.

Key Issues and Risks

• Military Exchanges and Ceasefire: Intensified military exchanges have resulted in a temporary ceasefire, but it has not fully taken effect. The US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz and refuses major concessions.
• Strait of Hormuz: The strait remains partially constrained, with Iran enforcing its own navigation rules. Non-Iranian cargo traffic is still allowed, but the situation is tense.
• Future Talks: A follow-up meeting is planned for April 16 in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, but no official confirmation has been made. The talks are seen as tactical delays rather than genuine efforts toward resolution.
• Major Concerns: The four core issues in negotiations include:
  1. Resumption of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz
  2. Sanctions relief and release of frozen Iranian assets
  3. Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs
  4. Terms for a comprehensive regional ceasefire
• Risk Assessment: The probability of a breakthrough is low, and the conflict could become more prolonged than anticipated due to deep structural divisions.

Market Impact

• Oil Supply Constraints: The tensions have impacted global oil markets, with the Strait of Hormuz being a key constraint on crude supply.
• Brent Crude Price Projections:
  • Base Case (Scenario A): Ceasefire extended, Strait partially reopens. Brent price range: $92–100/bbl for 2–4 weeks; $88–100/bbl beyond that.
  • Conflict Escalation (Scenario B): Strait fully blocked, supply gap widens. Brent price range: $105–125/bbl for 2–4 weeks; $100–110/bbl beyond that.
  • De-escalation (Scenario C): Temporary agreement, Strait fully reopens, sanctions relaxed. Brent price range: $90–102/bbl for 2–4 weeks; $78–85/bbl beyond that.
  • Full-Scale War (Scenario D): Strait fully paralyzed, severe supply disruption. Brent price range: $125–150/bbl for 2–4 weeks; $115–135/bbl beyond that.

Analysts

• 李丹怡 – SFC HK执业证书编号：BVG935
• 金稚皓 – SFCHK执业证书编号：BXI779

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or offers to buy or sell securities. The information and opinions expressed are based on the analysts' assessment as of the date of publication and may be subject to change. The content is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete, and the analysts do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information. For full details, please refer to the complete report on the official website of Haitong International Research.

Conclusion

The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution, with the risk of protracted conflict and market volatility increasing. The outcome will significantly affect global oil prices, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, and will depend heavily on the progress of negotiations and the willingness of both sides to de-escalate.