2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Boosting_Competitiveness_to_Grow_Out_of_Debt_Can_Ireland_Find_a_Way_Back_to_Its_Future__35页_1mb

Summary of "Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt—Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper examines Ireland's economic prospects in the context of high public debt and financial fragility, with a focus on how competitiveness, exports, and external demand can drive growth and reduce imbalances. The paper uses econometric analysis to explore the relationships between these variables and their impact on Ireland's macroeconomic performance.

Main Findings

1. Competitiveness and Economic Growth

• Ireland regained cost competitiveness after the 2008-09 financial crisis due to a decline in domestic prices.
• Maintaining competitiveness is essential for Ireland to return to a path of strong exports and economic growth.
• Exports have a direct positive impact on GDP growth and government revenue, which in turn reduces the debt burden.

2. External Demand as a Key Driver

• External demand is the most important determinant of Ireland's GDP and government revenue.
• The paper supports the view that trading partners' demand significantly drives economic growth, aligning with previous studies on Italy and Korea.

3. Impact of REER Appreciations

• Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) appreciations, especially CPI-based, constrain total exports.
• ULC-based REER appreciations are harmful to both FDI and exports, while CPI-based REER appreciations show a counterintuitive positive correlation with exports.

4. FDI and Economic Performance

• FDI has a positive short-term impact on exports and economic growth.
• FDI was a central element of Ireland's economic success, particularly in the high-tech sector.
• A decline in net inward FDI, especially in key export sectors like computer hardware and software, weakened Ireland's export potential.

5. Fiscal and External Imbalances

• Ireland's public debt and net international investment position (NIIP) deficits increased significantly post-crisis, reaching 100% of GDP by 2011.
• Interest payments on public debt rose from 2.3% of revenue in 2007 to 15.5% in 2013–16, limiting room for growth-enhancing investments.
• The country's economic performance prior to the crisis was driven by productivity and strong exports, but this weakened in the early 2000s.

Key Variables and Models

• Variables Analyzed: GDP, exports, government revenue, REER (both CPI and ULC-based), FDI, and trading partners' demand.
• Data Period: Quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2009Q4.
• Models Used:
  • VAR1 (Baseline Model): Includes exports growth, GDP growth, and revenue growth as endogenous variables.
  • VAR2 (Expanded Model): Adds trading partners' demand, inward FDI, and REER changes to the baseline model.
• Lag Order: Four lags were used in both models based on lag selection tests.

Policy Implications

• Maintaining Competitiveness: Crucial for Ireland to sustain economic growth and reduce public debt.
• External Demand: A pickup in external demand is vital to support growth and fiscal recovery.
• FDI as a Growth Engine: FDI remains a key driver of economic performance, especially in the high-tech sector.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Revenue growth and GDP expansion are necessary to reduce the debt burden and improve fiscal sustainability.

Challenges and Prospects

• Post-Crisis Imbalances: Ireland faces significant fiscal and external imbalances, which pose a challenge to recovery.
• Structural Vulnerabilities: The country's reliance on exports and high trade openness made it susceptible to external shocks.
• Path to Recovery: The paper suggests that a return to the "Celtic Tiger" growth model is possible if competitiveness is preserved and external demand improves.

Conclusion

Ireland's economic recovery hinges on maintaining its competitiveness and boosting external demand. The paper emphasizes the importance of exports and FDI in driving growth and fiscal performance, and highlights the need for structural reforms and sustainable fiscal policies to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.