2025-06-12-Jefferies-4月暖通空调数据_住宅市场中幅增长表明410A吸收完成；轻型商用市场低幅下降_12页_5mb

HVAC Market Update: Q1 2025 Results and Outlook

• Key Trends:

  • April shipments rose 6.3% YOY (796K vs 749K a year ago), with residential (Resi) up 7.6% and commercial (Comml) down 26.1%. Resi growth outpaces Comml due to destocking amid A2L refrigerant transition (R410A pre-buy complete, shifting to R454b).
  • Heat pumps led growth (32.3% of total shipments), up 18.9% YOY, while AC-only units declined due to inventory destocking post-transition.
  • Quarterly comparisons are tough, with Comml shipments falling further YOY but offset by price/mix gains in some companies like Johnson Controls (JCI).

• Drivers and Risks:

  • Higher pricing (PPI up 1.9% YOY) from metals tariffs and refrigerant costs. Warmer summer forecasts in the US could boost Resi demand via increased cooling needs.
  • Economic risks include weaker consumer spending and raw material volatility (copper, steel). Affordability issues may limit volume growth despite price hikes.

• Company-Specific Highlights:

  • Carrier (CARR): Market view stable, valued with EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA; buy recommendation.
  • Johnson Controls (JCI): Similar valuation metrics; buy rating.
  • Lennox (LII): Hold recommendation due to volume guidance cuts and historical multiple adjustments.
  • Trane Technologies (TT): Hold from destocking concerns, partly offset by price/mix improvements.
  • A2L transition is expected to add 8-10% price inflation, with tariffs adding similar amounts.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Resi shipments rebounded on "pre-buy" effects pre-transition, while Comml continues to lag. Heat pump share rose to 32.3% of total HVAC, supported by regulatory changes and consumer adoption.

• Recommendations:

  • Buy: CARR and JCI reflect confidence in inventory absorption and pricing power.
  • Hold: LII and TT face volume uncertainties but are supported by tariff-related price increases. Pricing is normalizing after a record high, with trends indicating continued modest gains.

Additional insights: Seasonal weather data from NOAA suggests above-normal US temperatures may sustain higher Resi demand, but economic headwinds could cap overall growth. Exhibits show shipment volumes bottoming post-destock and PPI stabilizing around historical averages.